It's The Bigs Blog #6 - Early Outfield Tiers

 Rather than jump in and rank the top 40 or so outfielders with in-depth breakdowns in the beginning of December when so many are in flux, I decided to simply release my "tiers" at this point.  These are in no particular order within the tiers and are in no way concrete at this time but serves more as a guide toward spring when I'll more clearly decide who I value within each tier.  Let's get into it.

Tier 1 - The MVPs
Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, Juan Soto

Draft these three in the first round with pride.  A "down" year from Soto still gave you a 400 OBP and he certainly never killed you in any week with counting stats.  Yes, it was disappointing, but I'm buying back in on Soto this year in San Diego.  Betts is the most underrated first round talent in baseball right now and could return to MVP form with a few more stolen bases.  His 2022 was incredible for a lead-off hitter of his caliber and I will be happy to reap the benefits of a 2B eligibility as well.  Judge is historic.  Imagine if he signs with the Dodgers and he's on the same team as Betts?  

Tier 2 - The Just-As-Good MVPs
Julio Rodriguez, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna

This is the next best group of outfielders that could just as easily finish higher than the three above them.  However, each comes with his own questions coming into 2023.  Julio's Rookie of the Year season was electric.  Do it again and he'll be included in Tier 1 next season.  Yordan doesn't steal bases.  At all.  Neither does Mike Trout for that matter and Trout has injury concerns year after year now.  Kyle Tucker doesn't put up the BA or run scored capacity that the rest of these guys do, and I think part of that has to do with lineup construction.  It doesn't help him that another great hitter just joined the lineup in Jose Abreu.  I think of all of them, he's the most in flux of this group.  Acuna saw his power diminish significantly in 2022 and I would like to see him return to somewhere near 100 runs in his first full year back after the ACL.  

Tier 3 - The "What If" Guys, Part 1
Kyle Schwarber, Randy Arozarena, Eloy Jimenez, Starling Marte, Michael Harris II, Luis Robert, Adolis Garcia, Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer, Dauton Varsho

Yeah, this is a big group.  Bigger, in fact, that I had to split it in half.  There's going to be gold in these hills, and I'll be picking my favorites among them as my potential OF1/2 combinations in some of the middle rounds.  Here's what I'll be asking for each:
What if Schwarber doesn't hit leadoff?
What if Randy Arozarena can cut his strikeout rate down another 4% like he did this year?
What if Eloy Jimenez actually stays healthy having to be the primary DH?
What if Starling Marte could stay healthy... like ever?
What if Michael Harris II is better than the original?
What if Luis Robert could stay healthy and play more than 98 games.... ever?
What if Adolis Garcia becomes a "Just-As-Good" by season's end?  This guy I'll give you a little more on.  Two straight seasons of a BA near .250, 27+HR, 90+RBI, 16+SB.  He absolutely belongs in this tier and could jump sky high if only his strikeout rate comes down.  It's the same as Mike Trout right now.
What if Teoscar Hernandez takes to Seattle the way Eugenio Suarez did?
What if George Springer could ... I don't know... do everything a little bit better?  His numbers aren't bad this past season, but he doesn't do one thing outstanding anymore.  The 14 steals were a nice surprise and I would hope to see a second position of eligibility with his age slowly creeping further and further away from 30.  
What if Daulton Varsho is the best catcher in the league by season's end?

Tier 4 - The "What If" Guys, Part 2
Jeff McNeil, Christian Yelich, MJ Melendez, Hunter Renfroe, Nick Castellanos, Cedric Mullins, Joc Pederson, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Santander, Bryan Reynolds, Byron Buxton

Yeah, it's longer here.  But same rules apply.  I just think this group isn't going to return quite as high a ceiling as those in Part 1.  Here's the "what if" questions about these guys.

What if Jeff McNeil could hit 2nd rather than 6th or 7th all season?  
What if Christian Yelich finally got healthy last year and this is the new norm?
What if MJ Melendez could learn to hit a slider?
What if this is what Hunter Renfroe is? 
What if THIS is what Nick Castellanos is?
What if the Baltimore Orioles get a really nice 2 hitter to hit behind Cedric Mullins?
What if the Giants sign Judge?  It's not going to happen, but how would that impact Joc?
What if anyone other than the Yankees sign Judge?  How will that impact Stanton?
What if Anthony Santander wasn't shifted on 85% of his LH AB's in 2021?
What if Bryan Reynolds gets traded to the Dodgers to replace Cody Bellinger?
WHAT IF BYRON BUXTON COULD GIVE US ONE FULL SEASON?

Tier 5 - The Cliff is Coming
Taylor Ward, Brandon Nimmo, Ian Happ, Kris Bryant, Andrew Benintendi, Steven Kwan, Seiya Suzuki, Alex Verdugo, Mark Canha, Jurickson Profar

This tier is really where I think the cliff gets obvious.  Each of these guys could very well be a great starter for your 12 team leagues, but if you don't have an outfielder by this point, you're going to be at a very large detriment as you'll see soon.  Some thoughts:

Taylor Ward will have everyday playing time immediately, but his lineup spot may deteriorate with the health of Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani... along with the addition of Hunter Renfroe.  Roster Resource shows him hitting cleanup and, if true, would be amazing.

Brandon Nimmo received 8/162 and somehow it feels like a cheaper deal.  20M for this guy over the next 8 years makes me hope that he ages like Curtis Granderson minus the pop.  The OBP is tremendous, though I don't think he'll ever hit 20 home runs.  This was also just the second time he's had more than 325 AB's in his career and the first he's had more than 140 games.  He definitely cashed in on his walk year.

As I'm writing this, Dansby Swanson signs for 7 and 177 in Chicago to play with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, both in this tier.  I was hoping we'd see some movement from the Cubs as the NL Central feels fairly open for competition with the Brewers seemingly adding by subtracting.  So Happ and Suzuki immediately get a lot of help in that lineup from Swanson, though this is a lineup I could see going ape shit sideways with all the strikeout potential from Happ (149), Bellinger (150), Swanson (182).  I don't immediately feel the need to jump these two up anywhere but you could do far less than these guys coming up.

Tier 6:  The Cliff has Arrived.
Bryce Harper*, Jake McCarthy, Corbin Carroll, Tyler O'Neill, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Trayce Thompson, Lars Nootbaar, Mitch Haniger.

*Let's address this immediately.  Harper had TJ, he's out until July and, for some platforms, eligibility requirements say he won't even be OF available upon return.  The Phillies have stated he'll DH mostly upon return.  Meaning he'll be a JD Martinez, Shohei Ohtani UTIL only for half a season.  If he returns on time without a setback.  

McCarthy and Carroll seem to be a foundation of a nice core Arizona is building here.  Carroll could come up quite a bit with some spring helium but either of these guys feel like a healthy OF4.

Tyler O'Neill comes off an injury plagued season where he only saw 334 AB.  The Cardinals brought in Willson Contreras to that lineup and if we can see a full healthy season of O'Neill, it could pay large dividends.  It's a fairly low risk high reward type play, given the 14/14 HR/SB season he put up in those 334 AB.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr hit 20 homers in two seasons.  One was the 2019 juiced ball season.  The other was in 2021 when he had 500 AB's.  To say that would be the ceiling may be the truth here and since he's no longer eligible anywhere but LF, unless I need that specifically, I can find a better option for my bench outfield spot.  Also, RR has him hitting  7th behind all the RBI guys.  Yuck.

Trayce Thompson showed me something last season replacing Cody Bellinger on the Dodgers and I think if this dude has a good spring, he'll be another guy coming out of this tier rising at a surprising rate.  Just over 200 AB's, he held his own with a .256/.353/.860 triple slash.  13 HR, 4 steals... if this is truly his CF job as all indication appears with the Dodgers not doing much on the offensive side besides letting Bellinger walk... I'm in.  Corners available currently and slated to play CF?  SLEEPER.

And while we're at it, here's Lars Nootbaar who also appears to be headed for starting playing time in a premier team's outfield.  St Louis is looking like a team that will have a middle of the order of Contreras, Goldschmidt and Arenado... and the remainder of these interchangeable parts will go as matchups dictate.  Edman, Donovan, O'Neill, this guy, Yepez, Carlson... they all feel like they could hit many places in the lineup and have it make sense.  If Nootbaar gets the leadoff gig or the 2/5 gig in front of or behind the 3 stars, I'm in.  SLEEPER.

Mitch Haniger was placed here as a nice floor to the cliff.  He signed in San Francisco after I made the tiers and I feel like that landing spot, coupled with Correa, gives me a chance to perhaps see him as in the tier above now.  Aside from this past season's injury-riddled and painful year, he was healthy in 18 and 21.  It's a cherry bomb that could return top 25 OF value if health permits.  But, he just got paid.  So good luck.

Tier 7 - Welcome To the Abyss.
Michael Conforto, Brandon Marsh, Michael Brantley, Charlie Blackmon, Whit Merrifield, Oscar Gonzalez, Andrew Vaughn, Austin Hays, Randall Grichuk, Riley Greene, Andrew McCutchen, Dylan Carlson, Lane Thomas

I bet you're thinking to yourself "man, he's already listed a bunch of guys and this is the cliff?  I feel pretty confident about outfield."  You're wrong.  I've listed 48 at this point.  The Bigs is a 16 team league.  Simple math says that's 3 per team but that includes guys playing at other positions, guys getting hurt in spring, guys performing poorly in spring or starting in the minors, and Bryce Harper. So these guys will be starters.  If you haven't gotten your outfield set by now, welcome to the Abyss.

Michael Conforto hasn't played baseball in over a year, wasn't productive in 2021 when he was there for 125 games, and we're now 3 full years removed from his "ceiling" season of... *gasp* 2019.  Oh, and he doesn't have a job as of now.

Brandon Marsh better be on a damn Vespa out there with Schwarber and Castellanos flanking him this season.  But that doesn't matter for fantasy aside from the belief that he's going to have playing time.  He's slated to hit last, has an awful K rate, swings a pool noodle but might go 15/15 with 600 AB's.  I am not excited.

As of writing Michael Brantley is unemployed. Michael Brantley has hit 20 home runs twice, and once is 2019.  He's 35, probably will DH mostly this season and become the James Loney/Edgar Martinez type high-average DH for someone in the years to come.  The bat will always be there, but the 20 homer upside we've been chasing is probably gone now.

Charlie Blackmon was once the MAN.  That was 2017 when he had 37/104 and 14 SB.  Every single statistical metric measurable this man has regressed year over year since that season.  He's got a full time job as the Rockies DH and is beloved by the organization and the fanbase so playing time will be safe as well.  But no more speed, power below 20 homers and it's the Rockies.  Nope.

Whit Merrifield isn't running like he was in Kansas City, appears headed toward the bottom of the lineup and almost certainly loses eligibility in the outfield after this season.  You're probably playing him at second anyway if you're owning him.   

Oscar Gonzalez is the new Franmil Reyes.  Hopefully he keeps the K rate down, though.

Andrew Vaughn you're probably playing at 1B.

Austin Hays is hitting at the bottom of the Orioles lineup, but has corners eligibility and was in the top 10% of outfielders in doubles with 35.  He's 27, playing time feels fairly safe and barring an enormous slump (which you would drop him anyway) he'll be able to not kill you.  His ceiling may be 25 homers after seeing 22 in 2021.  I don't think the change in Camden Yards will help though.  

Randall Grichuk hits at the bottom of the perceived Rockies lineup on Roster Resource, though we saw him all over the lineup in 2022.  He stays mostly healthy and can pop 20+ in Colorado's second season with him.  No walks at all (4.5% BB rate to 23.6%K rate) so he feels like a lot of empty power.

Riley Greene is the Tigers kid and may shoot up this list if his spring this season is good.  I like what I see from his statcast numbers.  Nothing jumps off the page, but he didn't embarrass himself in 375 AB's.  .253/.321/.683 triple slash with a very bad strike out rate but above-average exit veolcity, Hard Hit %, Barrell % and BB%.  If he has a good spring, this guy could jump high.

Andrew McCutchen is currently unemployed and I have seen a few things about some bad teams showing interest.  Reds, Orioles, A's... none of it sounds promising but I'll reserve the right to change my mind in spring.

Dylan Carlson appears to be the worst of the group of Cardinals guys.  Pass.

Lane Thomas will get regular playing time in Washington.  But it's Washington so...

Tier 8 - Obvious Issues, but will be rostered

Not giving these guys their own blurb.  Here they are to finish it out.

Cody Bellinger, Jesse Winker, Austin Meadows, Wil Myers, Marcel Ozuna, Raimel Tapia, Austin Slater, Yonatan Daza, AJ Pollock, Chas McCormick, Kyle Lewis, Tommy Pham, David Peralta, Avisail Garcia, Yadiel Hernandez, Franmil Reyes, Jorge Soler, Mike Yastrzemski, Manuel Margot, Jarred Kelenic, Victor Reyes, Kevin Kiermaier, Eddie Rosario, Trent Grisham...

You see where this falls apart?  Maybe one of these guys is an all-star this season.  Are you going to be able to pick him right now?  No.  Fact is, right now there's maybe 50 guys I could see being viable starters in this write-up and I'm going to get at least 4 of them.


Thanks for getting all the way to the bottom!  Next will be SP!