It's The Bigs Blog #3 - Way Too Early 2B Rankings

Continuing on last week's post about too early rankings, coming at you with the way too early 2B rankings for the upcoming 2023 fantasy baseball season.  Again, I'll be highlighting the top 15 and honorable mentions.

Honorable Mentions:  Gavin Lux, Luis Rengifo, Ryan McMahon, DJ LeMahieu.  One sentence on each.

Gavin Lux has the opportunity to jump up these ranks as the off-season continues and I see real a playing time path and that has presented itself with Cody Bellinger being non-tendered. Rengifo is the poor man's version of Gavin Lux.  Ryan McMahon may not even have 2b eligibility in some leagues after 2022 but if he does, he isn't the greatest even in Coors.  DJ... ask a Yankee fan how they feel about that 90 million dollar contract they signed him to.  

15.  Jonathan India, Cincinnati Reds
2022:  .249/.327/.705    10HR, 41RBI, 31BB, 94K

This is a late addition to the top 15 as I had him outside looking in but, sadly, we lose Ty France from the ranks this season which allows India back in.  The hype machine was huge for the 2021 Rookie of the Year, coming off an impressive 21HR, 12SB season with an OBP north of .375.   He was a top 100 pick in many drafts, The Bigs included.  85th overall in 2021.  I was out.  I was OOOOUT on this guy in his sophomore year watching Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Nick Castellanos, and all their pitching coming off the team.  There was absolutely 0% chance he was going to return top 100 value in 2022 and yet, somehow, he kept filling up people's top 5s and 10s at the position.  Go look, I was out on him.  13th last year, 15th this year.  I'm out on this dude until the Cincinnati Reds show me that they're actually interested in playing major league baseball.  India himself is not the player to carry a franchise ever.  His ceiling is probably something like Jake Cronenworth but his floor is AAA.  Also, I only rank India 15th to get him on this write-up.  Realistically, he may be going behind the guys at Honorable Mention but I had to take this victory lap.

14.  Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees
2022:  .257/.310/.761  24HR, 76RBI, 39BB, 129K

Okay, so he's not complete garbage.  The Yankees found a way to have him have a normal, productive season in over 500 ABs for the first time since 2019.  If we take that aberration of 38 homers out, this line looks incredibly similar to his 2018 rookie season.  Maybe this is what we can expect going forward.   20 HR, 150 R+RBI, and double digit steals?  As long as he's still in the Bronx, I'll have interest but if the Cashman Crew decide to blow up the entire infield this off-season, it wouldn't shock me to see him on the move.   Some fun landing spots would be Colorado, San Francisco, Philadelphia... so NL teams I guess.

13.  Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
2022:  .240/.321/.728  12HR, 52 RBI, 55BB, 101K

Yet another 2019 hype guy finds himself at the back end of my top 15 this season.  Go look at these guys' 2019 numbers and tell me that's what you'll ever expect from them again.  You won't.  But, Ketel Marte led the position in doubles with 42 and still only played 137 games.  Realistically, if you could promise me a 150 game season out of Marte, I'd probably bump him up toward the top 10 but because of that overwhelming injury history (AND the 2019 hype thing) I'm a bit skiddish.

12.  Trevor Story, Boston Red Sox
2022:  .238/.303/.737  16HR, 66RBI, 32BB, 122K

These numbers, along with 13 stolen bases, come in only 357 at bats.  The 30.8% K rate is cause for concern... but let's count the number of things that went against him this year. 
First year of a monster deal?  Check. 
Had to sign it late because of the lockout?  Check.
New, larger environment with a greater media scrum than your previous home?  Check. 
New position?  Check. 
Covid Illness to start the season?  Check. 
Fluke HBP injury?  Check. 
First time father during the season?  Check.  
I'll give him a pass, but I need to see him in spring and how the Red Sox restructure this team without Bogaerts before I move him any higher right now.

11.  Luis Arraez, Minnesota Twins
2022:  .316/.375/.795  8HR, 49RBI, 50BB, 43K

That strikeout total is not a typo.  He did, in fact, strike out less than he walked while hitting over .315 and scoring as many runs as Jake Cronenworth.  Will Minnesota be taking a step back in 2023?  I'm not so sure about that as they're already making moves this off-season in the wake of Carlos Correa leaving the team.  Alongside Arraez, you'll see a lot of youth around this team's roster from Jose Miranda to Nick Gordon to upcoming prospect (and key piece of the Jose Berrios trade) Austin Martin all could be hitting behind this throwback-style leadoff hitter.  There's certainly a way he's much higher than the 12th 2B at season's end, but I'm not going to sign up for single-digit homers and less than 50 RBIs to chase batting average.

10.  Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins.
2022:  .235/.346/.751  16HR, 56RBI, 64BB, 95K

All of the things I said about Luis Arraez and the Minnesota lineup can be said about Jorge Polanco here.  Polanco, however, has the unenviable position of having the run production placed squarely back on his shoulders in the absence of Carlos Correa.  In a full season back in 21, he drove in almost 100 RBI and hit over 30 homers.  2022 showed injury concern for the first time in his career, having played more than 130 games each full season for which he wasn't suspended for PEDs (2018).  He's 29 now, turning 30 during the season and the Twins have a lot of questions forming a lineup around HIM.  It's easier being a lead-off hitter in that lineup, but given the potential for run production so long as health is not a concern, Polanco barely makes the top 10.

9.  Jake Cronenworth, San Diego Padres
2022:  .239/.332/.722  17HR, 88RBI, 70BB, 131K

Add in 88 runs as well and Cronenworth is in a great spot as your starting 2b.  He holds SS and 1B eligibility on Yahoo as well, but check your league's eligibility beyond this.  Cronenworth is the kind of lunch-pail player you can set and forget because with that eligibility comes playing time.  158 games this past season, 152 in 2021, 54 of 60 in 2020.  His chase rate and whiff percentage show incredible plate discipline, even if 130K's isn't exactly the most pretty thing to look at.  You'll then be telling me he'll be batting in the midst of Soto, Machado and Tatis for the majority of the season?  Yes, please.  All the shares.

8.  Andres Gimenez, Cleveland Guardians
2022:  .297/.371/.837   17HR, 69RBI, 34BB, 112K

All aboard the Andres Gimenez hype train!  The key piece the Guardians received in the Francisco Lindor trade paid huge this past season with the line above, and chipped in 20 steals just to be that much more awesome.  Do I expect a repeat in 2023?  No.  I'm actually thinking he could be better.  That Cleveland lineup impressed this past season and when we start thinking about 2023 for the Guardians, the lineup together for a full year could be trending toward a deep playoff run.  If that's the case, Andres Gimenez is going to be right in the middle of it around Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor and Amed Rosario.  The future looks bright for this kid.  And he's only 24.

7.  Tommy Edman, St. Louis Cardinals
2022:  .265/.324/.724   13HR, 57RBI, 46BB, 111K

That stat line may not impress.  But when I add in 95R, 31 2B, and 32SB you're suddenly realizing what you have.  Between this guy, Lars Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson, the Cardinals have a very nice problem of having too many guys to hit in front of Goldschmidt and Arenado.  If you're going to tell me his 31 doubles turns into a few more homers in 2023 because of age and power progression, I'll believe you.  The 30 steals has to be real... and you'll probably see an increase given the increase in size of bases in 2023.  To me, he's as safe a player as you possibly could find at this position that could return a 20/40 season in 2023.  "Safe" is the key word here given what's ahead of him.

6.  Jazz Chisholm, Miami Marlins
2022:  .254/.325/.860  14HR, 45RBI, 21BB, 66K

This is the exact opposite of Tommy Edman.  These stats, along with 12SB come from only 213 AB's this past season.  Turning just 25 before the season starts, this kid has impressed over his first two seasons in MLB but can't seem to stay on the field long enough to put together a full season yet.  The ceiling very well might be 30/50 if he were able to stay healthy and the new bases work to his favor, but the floor could be a flat out zero.  Also, 66K's in 213 ABs as well as 145K in 124G in 2021 equate to unsightly K% numbers but, if there's a silver lining, they've come down each of the last three seasons.   Add in the fact that the Marlins simply cannot score runs as the roster is currently constructed and I can't, in good conscience, put him in my top 5.  Draft with caution and expect to find a fill-in at some point in the season.  If you get 125 games, consider yourself lucky and ride the wave.

5.  Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves
2022:  .247/.294/.703  8HR, 35RBI, 16BB, 47K

It was a lost season in 2022 for Ozzie Albies.  Only 247 AB's across 64 games and when he was in the lineup, he flat out wasn't good.  The Braves have found options to hit atop their lineup.  He's turning just 26 and is quite possibly the best "bargain" the Braves have put together in their recent ability to lock up young players (see Harris, Acuna, Strider, Anderson, etc).  We're just one season removed from Albies hitting 30 homers and stealing 20 bases in about the quietest manner I've ever witnessed.  Now I can see people in 23 writing him off while the lineup improves (full season of Harris, Contreras, Grissom and second season with Olson).  I'll buy the bounce-back so long as the price isn't insane.  Remember, he was a 2nd-3rd rounder in 2022 so I'm not going anywhere near that.

4.  Jeff McNeil, New York Mets
2022:  .326/.382/.836   9HR, 62RBI, 40BB, 61K

"How on earth can you have Jeff McNeil inside the top 5 but Luis Arraez outside the top 10?  They're the same guy!" - people on the internet, maybe.  What if I told you that McNeil could be better than in 2022?  The guy won the batting title and he could be BETTER?  First, we would need to guarantee McNeil has another 150 game season in 2023 and, given this was his first one ever, I'm not going to bank on it.  Second, we saw a power display in 2019 of 23 homers.  You'll never see that again.  Put money on it.  If McNeil hits 20, consider it amazing but in the 3 seasons since that 23 homer output, he's hit 20 total.  So, yeah, color me shocked if he hits more than 15 next year.  But what gives me promise here is that he hit 39 doubles while mostly hitting toward the bottom of the Mets lineup.  If the Mets allow Brandon Nimmo to walk to another team in free agency this off-season, consider Jeff McNeil moved to the top of this powerhouse machine lineup and that, if NOTHING ELSE, could improve his season over 2022.  Whether it's leadoff in front of Marte or 2nd just behind him and in front of Lindor/Alonso, sign me up for this.  Oh yeah, he's also got LF/RF eligibility in Yahoo.

3.  Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers
2022:  .248/.304/.733   26HR, 83RBI, 53BB, 120K

25/25 season for Semien as he gave you exactly 25SB, 101 runs scored, 31 doubles, and played 155+ games for the 6th season in the last 7 full seasons.  Set it, forget it, give me 20/20 minimum.   Do I think the 45/102 he had in 2021 is the ceiling?  Yes, but there's no reason he can't give you something similar to a 30/30 season with a few small improvements to the Rangers lineup.  Imagine if he and Seager had more than just Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia to help?  What if they go get a real DH like JD Martinez instead of B(r)ad Miller?  If you want this guy, you'll probably have to pull the trigger before the 40th pick of the draft.  But if I can get him in the 3rd round of a 16 team league, I'm going to do backflips.

2.  Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
2022:  .300/.387/.920   28HR, 57RBI, 66BB, 87K

100 runs, 40 doubles, 18 steals... this is the gold standard at the position and we should all forget about the buzzers, tattoos, and cameras.  He's on his way to 3000 hits with 3 batting titles and an MVP under his belt.  If you want to question his MVP, I'll have the argument that it was right in line with what he was already doing in the three previous seasons.  I'll have facts, you'll have feelings about cameras.  Yes, I'm defending Jose Altuve.  He's a hall of fame player who has been shit on for 2020 and the circus that came with it.  He's somehow going deeper than Semien in current NFBC drafts and that's a damn shame.  I think I may have many shares of Altuve this season.

1.  Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers.
2022:  .269/.340/.873   35HR, 82RBI, 55BB, 104K

Fair warning, this only applies in Yahoo leagues.  Betts started 6 games at second base in 2022 and will be eligible at the position in some Yahoo formats only.  Check your league for eligibility requirements and know before drafting.  But if he's available in your league at 2b, he's the head-and-shoulders #1.... Altuve and Semien are easily 2 and 3.  Best lineup in baseball, 117 runs which paced the majors, and was shifted on more than half his at-bats so you could see an uptick in batting average over the last couple years.  He's not going to HURT you there ever, but if he could return to a .280-.295 BA instead of .264 and .269 each of the last two years, that would be even better.  I don't need to tell you why to draft Mookie Betts.  I'm here to remind you why you shouldn't forget him inside the top 5 this year.  While hype machines like Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr will be somehow in the first round, this is the type of guy that will somehow fall.  I'll be reaping the benefits without question.