It's The Bigs Blog #2 - Way Too Early 2023 1B Rankings!

 I know, it's way too early for a 2023 rankings blog, but I want to kick this off with something we can really sink our teeth into.  Here's my top 15 first base options going into the 2023 season.  Of course, things will change between now and draft season, but this should serve as a nice starting guide at this position.

Let's get this started:

Honorable Mentions:  CJ Cron, Josh Bell, Seth Brown

Quickly mentioning these three guys as people who just missed this list.  CJ Cron was awful outside of Coors and I don't see that changing over the next season as he turns 33 in the final year of that deal with Colorado.  If you want to platoon him with someone during the season, go for it.  Josh Bell struggled IMMENSELY in his move to San Diego and, if we're honest, we're still chasing that 2019 first half.  He'll never be that.  Hopefully he lands somewhere promising so he can garner a look in mixed leagues.  Finally, keep your eye on Seth Brown in Oakland.  This is the guy who made Matt Olson expendable and if you want track record of 1B guys from Oakland:  Matt Olson,  Mark Canha, Brandon Moss, Jason Giambi all within the last 15 years.... so I think you can be safe taking this guy late.

#15 - Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies
2022:  .246/.332/.794 , 30HR, 79RBI, 72BB, 169K

I think by this point we know what Rhys Hoskins is.  What he isn't is the 116 walks we saw in 2019 but he certainly is an above-average contributor at first base for that category.  The strikeouts were 3rd at the position behind Luke Voit and Matt Olson, so that will always be a concern.  Seeing the Phillies make the World Series could make this guy's stock rise this off-season but I don't know that I'm willing to ride with Rhys on my roster all season given the K totals and the large slumps he'll go through.  There are better options for power at this position.

#14 - Rowdy Tellez, Milwaukee Brewers
2022:  .219/.306/.767  35HR, 89RBI, 62BB, 121K

I was screaming about this guy while he was riding the pine in Toronto so they could play Travis Shaw.  I raved about him when he was traded to Milwaukee only to see Keston Hiura get playing time instead.  We finally got a real season out of the Rowdy one and something very important sticks out in this particular line.  The low batting average is coupled with a .252 XBA and a .215 BABIP.  Reason?  A Shift % of 78.4 which will undoubtedly diminish with the shift going away in 2023.  This source of power is already larger than Hoskins and I can see him getting to that BA with the shift disappearing.

#13 - Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox
2022:  .271/.321/.750  17HR, 76RBI, 31BB, 96K

Probably going to be the high man on Andrew Vaughn this season but with Chicago letting Jose Abreu walk into free-agency, this opens up the first base bag for Vaughn who was a top prospect at the position before transitioning to the outfield in 22.  His hard hit % was top 5 at the position, higher than guys we'll see much higher on the list and I think with a younger lineup and a fresh face at the helm in Chicago, there will be brighter days for Vaughn.

#12 - Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles
2022:  .250/.305/.728.  22HR, 85RBI, 43BB, 154K

The left field wall in Camden Yards is sapping this kid of his power stroke and I'm concerned he may fall further down this list as the off-season continues.  The move of the wall 26 feet back and 6 feet higher was projected to cost Camden Yards 200 homers over the season.  Mountcastle lost 11 from his 2021 total to this season and I don't see that going away.  The talent is absolutely there but this has the feeling of Nick Castellanos in Detroit to it.  I may be fading him further as the off-season goes.

#11 - Jake Cronenworth, San Diego Padres
2022:  .239/.332/.722  17HR, 88RBI, 70BB, 131K

Jake Cronenworth and the San Diego Padres off-season are a really interesting case study.  Cronenworth will be available at first base, second base and shortstop on Yahoo in 2023 so he finds himself here but it's a questionable spot given those below him and the low outputs across the board.  First, position eligibility goes a long way here where we've only seen one guy before this with a second position eligible (Vaughn).  Getting his versatility helps a ton.  The Padres are the second large reason I find Cronenworth here just outside the top 10.  He very well could be their everyday 1B next season unless they go out and bring someone else in.  Either way, he'll be anchored in that Padres lineup that immediately improves the second Fernando Tatis Jr shows back up.

#10 - Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays
2022:  .296/.401/.824  9HR, 57RBI, 78BB, 60K

What?  Yandy?  First of all, 15 starts at 1B should assure he has eligibility in a lot of leagues in 23, but for Yahoo, this might be the steal of the position.  Last season, I was touting how he was going to be the next big Rays breakout because they traded Joey Wendle away to open up 3B for him.  Here we are.  I don't know that the power will ever truly be there, but in Diaz, you're getting a guy who strikes out 10% of the time, has a 400 OBP and has a harder average exit velocity than anyone at the position not named "Jr."  The Rays will be going for it this season with Wander fully healthy, a rotation of McClanahan, Glasnow, Baz and more... and this guy will be hitting right at the top of the lineup.  

#9 - Ty France, Seattle Mariners
2022:  .276/.340/.777   20HR, 84RBI, 35BB, 94K

 The Seattle Mariners have one of the brightest, youngest teams in MLB coming into 2023 led by Julio Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert, Jarred Kelenic and a young man named Ty France who was acquired from the San Diego Padres in a trade with far too many pieces involved to be listed.  2022 proved that the 2021 season was real and we can expect him to be a part of the 1b crop of players that will be serviceable options for the next couple years.  He's going to be a sneaky performer of RBI this upcoming season with all the table-setters atop the Mariners lineup.  If they can get production from guys like Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez again, this will be a scary group.

#8 - Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers
2022:  .302/.358/.850    27HR, 76RBI, 48BB, 147K

Well, hello breakout season.  2022's numbers were helped mainly by a .363 BABIP which is surprising given his league-average Barrel %, Hard Hit % and AEV.  I think we may have seen the ceiling for Lowe here this season, but that doesn't mean he won't be very good going forward.  Having Semien and Seager in the middle of that lineup and the shift disappearing are only going to help this strong lefty.  Upside could be top 5 at the position and obviously 30/100.  Floor doesn't seem as scary as those below him because of the ability to hit for average better than almost anyone at the position.

#7 - Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
2022:  .242/.327/.804   36HR, 94RBI, 69BB, 131K

Christian Walker's 2022 season was hampered by a .248 BABIP.  Contrast that with what Nathaniel Lowe did with a BABIP 115 points higher and you'll see that Walker is a sleeping beast.  The walk numbers and K numbers are terrific.  When you couple the idea of putting Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Josh Rojas, Ketel Marte, and any random free-agent signing they decide to bring aboard, there are going to be dudes all over the basepaths for Walker in 23.   I'm buying pretty  hard here.

#6 - Jose Abreu, Free Agent
2022:  .304/.378/.824    15HR, 75RBI, 62BB, 110K

This ranking is based on track record, mainly.  This season was the first time we as a fantasy community have truly looked upon Jose Abreu as a detriment at first base... and he still hit 300.  40 doubles is a nice consolation prize but I wonder how much of his struggles this year can be a testament to the ever-changing lineup around him?  That White Sox team dealt with a lot of injuries and there was very little consistency in the lineup.  Add in a senile manager like Tony LaRussa and you've got the makings of a 35 year old down season.  30/100 could still be possible for the 36-year-old if he lands in the right spot.  Check back with me after he signs and see how I feel.  I don't know that he could crack the top 5, but a bad landing spot could drop him out of the top 10.

#5 - Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
2022:  .240/.325/.802    34HR, 103RBI, 75BB, 170K

I hope Matt Olson comes at a big discount next season because of those K numbers and that low batting average.  I hope hope hope you all sleep on him next season because I'm targeting him for an enormous second season in Atlanta.  He was shifted upon 81.3% of his 616 at bats.  Quick math says 501 of his at-bats, he was staring at 4 dudes on one side of the infield.  Get rid of that, you should see an uptick in batting average.  He was second at the position in Barrel % behind only Luke Voit and led the position in Average Exit Velocity of 92.9 off the bat.  Please sleep on him.  

#4 - Pete Alonso, New York Mets
2022:  .271/.352/.870    40HR, 131RBI, 67BB, 128K

It pains me to not put Pete higher on this list after what can be said is his best season of his three full.  I'm saying that about a man who hit 53 home runs in his rookie year.  Pete put up a career low in K% while thriving in the re-vamped Mets lineup for a career high in RBIs.  I don't foresee anything substantial changing here.  You're going to get a four-category monster if you draft this guy but no matter which category you pick, the next three guys have something over him in one way or another.  He's the safest pick, could always return first place value at the position, but for me, I'd go to these three guys first.

#3 - Vladimir Guerrero Jr,  Toronto Blue Jays
2022:  .274/.339/.819   32HR, 97RBI, 58BB, 116K

If you were paying the 1st overall pick for Vlad coming off his 2021 monster season, I think you'll admit you were disappointed by that stat line.  The most glaring thing is that he didn't crack 100 RBI.  This was a down year.  
He's 24 years old.  How many more down years do you think he'll have before he hits 30?  The Blue Jays are so close to a deep playoff run and 23 may be the year they punch through.  They'll go as far as Vlad can carry them and I'm banking on a bounce-back for him in 23.

#2 - Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
2022:  .317/.404/.982   35HR, 115RBI, 79BB, 141K

He should be the MVP of the National League before too long and if he's not, I'll be very surprised.  Just an absolute destructive season when you factor in 41 doubles and 7 steals.  The Cardinals should be looking to add pieces this year and perhaps a new SS will only lengthen the lineup even further in the case of someone like Carlos Correa, but something tells me there may be a bigger fish out there for the Cards.  Check back in March to see what's happened but Goldy could take top spot if the Cards have a good off-season.

#1 - Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
2022:  .325/.407/.918   21HR, 100RBI, 84BB, 102K

I mean, what did we expect?  Did we seriously think a trio of Turner, Betts and Freeman wouldn't return this kind of season.  The homers being down probably has something to do with a change to the west coast and Chavez Ravine, but the rest of the numbers all look like Freddie Freeman is going to continue being Freddie Freeman.  Now, imagine this.  Betts, Freeman.... JUDGE.  Check back in March when we see who's hitting around Freeman now and if anyone else's supporting cast has been changed.

Thanks for reading!  Who did I miss?  Who do you think I should move up?  Why do I have a man crush on Christian Walker?  Ask anything and until next time, it's ALWAYS real fun on the blog!

~JS