It's The Bigs Blog #10 - Way Too Early Catcher Rankings

 Back at the rankings again here with catchers this time.  Lots of movement among the top tier this year and we're suddenly in an era of catcher where there are plenty of viable options in 12 team leagues and for those in deeper leagues, you'd see a slew of options far deeper than in years past.  Let's dive in.

Honorable Mention:  Logan O'Hoppe LAA, Gabriel Moreno ARI, Jonah Heim/Mitch Garver TEX, Yasmani Grandal CWS.  One sentence on each.

O'Hoppe was the piece the Angels received in the Brandon Marsh trade with Philadelphia and takes over the starting reigns as a rookie in 2023 from Max Stassi who hit .180.  Gabriel Moreno one of two pieces in a trade we will talk about later but is going to see regular playing time in Arizona taking over for Carson Kelly who hit .211.  Whoever wins the job in Texas has some appeal with that offense and both may return value if they fit as a DH.  Grandal is a sweet buy-low off a disappointing and injury plagued 2022.

15.  Christian Vazquez, Minnesota Twins
2022:  (398 AB)  .274/.315/.714     9HR, 52RBI, 22BB, 69K

Vazquez finds himself landing in Minnesota on a three year deal making him the best catcher the Twins have had since Joe Mauer retired.  Garver's ridiculous 2019 not withstanding, Vazquez will bring a veteran presence to a mostly-young rotation and will probably bat near the bottom of the order.  There will be some eye rolling games with him, but the realistic stance is that this guy will absolutely not hurt you in  leagues where you'll need to roster him.  For 15 team leagues and deeper, he's probably someone's starter and you could do far worse.

14.  Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds
2022:  (166 AB)    .319/.372/.854     6HR, 35RBI, 12BB, 47K

The stick is apparently real.  We've got a 533 AB sample size for his entire career now that shows a line of .296/.369/.823 with 18HR, 86RBI, 84R, 30 2B, and a league-average K rate.  He's to be 26 this upcoming season and hits in the best hitters park east of the Mississippi.  He's projected to bat between Joey Votto and Wil Myers, both professional hitters.  If he's healthy and available at a discount, Stephenson deserves one more season for lineup spot and potential alone.

13.  Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
2022:  (370AB)     .211/.284/.773     27HR, 63RBI, 38BB, 122K

Meet Mike Zunino.  If you liked Mike Zunino for his 30 homer upside and enormous K rate, you'll love Cal Raleigh for his mid-20s upside and slightly less frightening K rate.  The fact that he's a switch hitter makes him especially important for the Seattle Mariners lineup, however I'm not convinced he's really going to be their cleanup hitter as Roster Resource projects at this moment.  Again, I'm not sure where he'll end up going on draft days, but I'm not sure if this is the type of hitter profile I'd be targeting anyway.

12.  Keibert Ruiz, Washington Nationals
2022:  (394AB)    .251/.313/.673         7HR, 36RBI, 30BB, 50K

This, on the other hand, is exactly the type of player I'd like to target going into 2023 if I'm going to be taking a catcher on a bad team.  This Washington team may be the worst team in the league when the season is over, but it won't be because Keibert Ruiz is hurting them.  Those K totals being so low (11.5K% in 22) and Ruiz himself going into his age 24 season, the sky is the limit.  I'd be cautious in redraft and more excited in dynasty, though, as the 23 Nats will be awful and if there's nobody on base, you'll see the RBI numbers ugly despite his favorable spot in the lineup.  

11.  MJ Melendez, Kansas City Royals
2022:  (460AB)    .217/.313/.706        18HR, 62RBI, 66BB, 131K

Later on in this list I'll be talking about another guy with speed upside that will probably only be on this list for this season and then gone.  But MJ Melendez is an interesting case as he plays predominantly the outfield which contributed to his larger-than-normal AB total compared to the rest of the class.  He comes with a better K rate than Raleigh before him, has a far better BB% than those before him and is also very young entering his age 24 season.  With the LF and RF eligibility, this is a sneaky pick in 23.

10.  Travis d'Arnaud, Atlanta Braves
2022:   (396AB)     .268/.319/.791    18HR, 60RBI, 19BB, 90K

This dude is aging very nicely as this past season was, by far, the best of his career.  He set career highs in AB, HR, 2B, and AVG.  Why isn't he higher up the list?  Because a lot of his expected statistics say he probably shouldn't have been quite THIS good.  That said, the pairing of Sean Murphy in Atlanta probably means there might be a DH/C platoon at times and he could see a bump in AB's from 22.  If THAT is the case, then I could see him returning a similar stat line with another 50 AB's.  If he can figure out how to walk a little more, then we'll really see something.

9.  William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers
2022:  (334AB)    .278/.354/.860    20HR, 45RBI, 39BB, 104K

This part of the countdown gets weird.  The Braves guy, then the guy the Braves traded away... and next will be the guy they got to pair with the first guy.  And after that is this guy's brother!  It's a little strange.  But, for now, the 25 year old catching prospect projects to hit in the middle of the Brewers retooled lineup between Rowdy Tellez and other new acquisition for the Brew Crew, Jesse Winker.  With Yelich, Adames and ... whatever else they do, this guy will be in the middle of it.  The power is real, the K rate is a little high (27.7%)  but this Brewers lineup is incredibly balanced.  

8.  Sean Murphy, Atlanta Braves
2022:  (537AB)     .250/.332/.758    18HR, 66RBI, 56BB, 124K

Back to Atlanta with their big off-season acquisition.  This guy got the Oakland Athletics a haul for his services and Atlanta should be ready to play him everyday he possibly can.  We're going to see some DH appearances from him and/or d'Arnaud as well so the longevity over the season should be there.  Should one of them get injured, however, you'll see a workhorse load for the other so be prepared to have to shift to the other if you can in 12 team leagues.  Perhaps even draft both.  Murphy looks to hit behind Olson and ahead of Albies as Roster Resource sees it and, if so, that's juice for a 20HR season in a far better ballpark than he's played in.

7.  Willson Contreras, St. Louis Cardinals
2022:  (416AB)    .243/.349/.815    22HR, 55RBI, 45BB, 103K

Well, when you're trying to replace a franchise cornerstone in Yadier Molina, the best thing you can do is go steal the franchise cornerstone from the hated rivals.  Welcome to Saint Louis, Willson Contreras.  Your spot in the order should be just ahead of or just behind Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt.  Either way, I'll be a happy guy.  Maybe we see a dip in the power department in 2023, something between 17-20HR seems likely, but I could believe an uptick in RBI opportunity given the improvement in team and lineup.  He'll never kill you in the BA department and is an above-average contributor for OBP and, of course, walks.  There were plenty of good landing spots for Contreras this off-season but I'm sure this one stings particularly for Cubs fans.  The fact that it's an upgrade is great for fantasy owners.

6.  Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
2022:  (445AB)    .254/.292/.757    23HR, 76RBI, 18BB, 109K

Salvador Perez is just one year removed from hitting 48 home runs and hitting .273.  I'm sure if you drafted him high in 2022 off of that season, you look at the line he put up and are disappointed.  Realistically, this is down from years past, but not as egregiously as you'd think.  The 2021 season is a real aberration in the HR and RBI department.  Every other season, he's hit 21-27HR and had 64-80 RBI.  This season lines up with that.  If that's what he'll be in age-33 season with more DH opportunity thanks to MJ Melendez being a person, I may have shares if his stock drops.  His ceiling may still be 30 homers and there aren't many catchers we can say that about.

5.  Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
2022:  (398AB)    .254/.362/.807    13HR, 42RBI, 65BB, 86K

I drafted Adley Rutschman 350th overall in the 22nd round and said aloud "what does he realistically have to do to return top 10 catcher value?"  Yahoo ranked him 4th at the position at the end of the season.  He had more runs scored than Will Smith.  He was second at the position in doubles to only Sean Murphy.  Sean Murphy had 2 more doubles in 139 more AB's.  He was second at the position in walks, only 1 behind MJ Melendez who had 62 more AB's.  He was third at the position in runs scored behind two guys we haven't covered yet.  They had 133 and 106 more AB's respectively.  This kid is special.  

4.  Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays
2022:    (531AB)    .235/.302/.745    27HR, 74RBI, 46BB, 145K

Add 16 swipes to that stat line above and you'll see why this guy cracked the top 5.  I mentioned a moment ago that Rutschman was third at the position in runs scored.  Varsho led them with 79.  But, he's Varsho and he's an outfielder and the trade to Toronto probably secures the fact that he'll lose catcher eligibility after this season in most leagues.  That said, this would be the season to utilize that as much as you can.  For Varsho, he may be plugged right into the Lourdes Gurriel spot in the lineup which may play 6/7.  Not optimal, but an uptick in RBI opportunities would be welcome.  Varsho also tied for the position lead in HR with Cal Raleigh and fourth at the position in RBI behind Smith, Realmuto and Perez.  If he can improve the K rate and see a bit more success with the regulated shift, we could see a massive jump for this guy... only to become a mid-level outfielder.  Yay.

3.  Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays
2022:  (470AB)    .285/.372/.787    14HR, 63RBI, 63BB, 58K

Varsho's new teammate is the starting catcher and is everything you wish you could be in an athlete.  Listed at 5'8, 245 pounds, this is the lean, mean, hitting machine in Toronto.  If we set the minimum at 167 AB's (and that disqualifies Tyler Stephenson) then Alejandro Kirk was the best pure hitter at the position.  He walked more than he struck out.  He had the best OBP at the position and there's no reason he shouldn't see exactly the same treatment he did in 22.  Bichette can't be worse than he was for 5 of the 6 months of 2022, Vlad had a down season... I think Kirk is in for a big season north of the border and could help push this team to 2nd in the division.  

2.  Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
2022:  (508AB)    .260/.343/.808    24HR, 87RBI, 56BB, 96K

28 years old.  Prime spot in the lineup.  DH opportunity once or twice a week as the team's legendary pitcher has his own personal catcher to spell you.  A smooth, destructive stroke that can propel so many run-scoring hits.  He led the position in RBI, projects to be the 3 hitter behind Betts and Freeman next season and should once again be a fantasy asset anywhere he's drafted.   K rate is fantastic, expected stats are all perfectly in line with the numbers he actually produced and he is incredibly balanced hitting the ball to all fields.   There's just one thing he doesn't do that this last guy does so well.

1.  JT Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies
2022:  (504AB)    .276/.342/.820    22HR, 84RBI, 41BB, 119K

JT Realmuto also had 21 stolen bases to lead the position and become just the second catcher in MLB history to have a 20/20 season.  The first?  Hall of Fame Catcher Ivan Rodriguez in 1999 had 35HR and 25SB.  He won the MVP.  Realmuto finished 7th.  But he finished 2nd in Runs, 2nd in RBI, 3rd in 2B, 3rd in BA, and the lineup gets better this year as the Phillies go ahead and add Trea Turner.  This is going to be his age 32 season and is locked up on the Phillies for three more years.  When will he fall out of the #1 spot?  Could we see him go 25/25?  

There they are guys!  The top 15+ catchers going into the 2023 season as it stands around this holiday season.  Don't forget to check out our audio podcasts on Spotify, Stitcher, Anchor, Google Podcasts or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.  More of those audio pods will be coming in the days and weeks to come.  Can't wait for that.

Until next time, it's been real, it's been fun and it's always real fun in the bigs!