It's The Bigs Blog #4 - Way Too Early Shortstop Rankings

Shortstop is incredibly deep this year and only getting deeper as we see names like O'Neill Cruz, Gunnar Henderson and Bryson Stott make the list this year.  I won't be covering any of them here as they didn't reach the top 15, which is indicative of exactly how deep this position will be in 2023.  You can certainly wait on SS this year if you'd like, but it dries up very quickly from the top of the position after about 12.  You'll see what I mean.

Honorable Mentions:  Jeremy Pena, Jorge Polanco, Trevor Story, Amed Rosario.  One sentence on each:

Pena was the ALCS and World Series MVP in his rookie season and that helium better not come across in draft value in 2023 as we saw an extended slump of what could be his floor through the middle months.  Polanco loses 2B eligibility (presumably) after this season as he'll shift back to SS but the lineup doesn't look nearly as potent without Correa.  Story was highlighted in the 2B rankings more thoroughly.  Amed Rosario may see a boost in SB output with the bigger bases coming in 23, but I don't think the power will ever really eclipse 15 like it did in the 2019 juiced ball year.

15.  Willy Adames, Milwaukee Brewers
2022:  .238/.298/.756   31HR, 98RBI, 49BB, 166K

Immediately eyes go to the .238 average coupled with an OBP lower than .300.  Yeah, it's ugly.  But that 31/98 is real and there's only one other guy at this position that hit 30 homers.  The league average was .242 on the season so Adames doesn't kill you in that particular statistic.  The strikeout rate is the worst of the top 15 but still better than Trevor Story and in the same ballpark as Dansby Swanson.  His lineup spot is secure in Milwaukee hitting behind former MVP Christian Yelich and in front of fellow 30-homer club member Rowdy Tellez.  You don't have to spend an arm and a leg to get some cheap power here and if you're delegating your picks elsewhere, think about this guy in the mid rounds next year.

14.  Andres Gimenez, Cleveland Guardians
2022:  .297/.371/.837   17HR, 69RBI, 34BB, 112K

(COPIED FROM 2B RANKINGS)
All aboard the Andres Gimenez hype train!  The key piece the Guardians received in the Francisco Lindor trade paid huge this past season with the line above, and chipped in 20 steals just to be that much more awesome.  Do I expect a repeat in 2023?  No.  I'm actually thinking he could be better.  That Cleveland lineup impressed this past season and when we start thinking about 2023 for the Guardians, the lineup together for a full year could be trending toward a deep playoff run.  If that's the case, Andres Gimenez is going to be right in the middle of it around Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor and Amed Rosario.  The future looks bright for this kid.  And he's only 24.

13.  Tommy Edman, St. Louis Cardinals
2022:  .265/.324/.724   13HR, 57RBI, 46BB, 111K

(COPIED FROM 2B RANKINGS)
That stat line may not impress.  But when I add in 95R, 31 2B, and 32SB you're suddenly realizing what you have.  Between this guy, Lars Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson, the Cardinals have a very nice problem of having too many guys to hit in front of Goldschmidt and Arenado.  If you're going to tell me his 31 doubles turns into a few more homers in 2023 because of age and power progression, I'll believe you.  The 30 steals has to be real... and you'll probably see an increase given the increase in size of bases in 2023.  To me, he's as safe a player as you possibly could find at this position that could return a 20/40 season in 2023.  "Safe" is the key word here given what's ahead of him.

12.  Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays
2022:  .277/.328/.745   6HR, 33RBI, 26BB, 33K

Okay so we got half a season out of Franco and it wasn't exactly what he was hyped up for.  I will very loudly here proclaim I had him as my 4th SS coming into last season and took him in the second round of our league last year.  I took a big, fat, teal and white L on him.  It was injury related as he broke his hamate bone and missed 6 weeks and really wasn't the same after that.  He wasn't great before that either, but we did see what I bought into coming into 22.  The plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills are some of the best in the game.  He'll be 22 this year.  If the price is right, I'll buy back in but I can truly admit I bought in too high having seen Tatis and Bichette in years past.  Maybe this is the year for him, maybe it's still years to come.

11.  Carlos Correa, Free Agent
2022:  .291/.366/.833   22HR, 64RBI, 61BB, 121K

There has been this narrative about Carlos Correa that he was one of the biggest cheaters in the 2017 Astros scandal.  I think he was certainly the most outspoken of the members of that team -- coming to the defense of many after the comments made by Cody Bellinger -- but to think that his talent isn't real would be foolish.  That said, I'm hesitant given the lack of RBI total in Minnesota this past season.  Depending on landing spot and lineup construction, I'll be apt to move him up in the spring but until I know something more definitive on Correa's future, it's hard to rank him anywhere beyond "inside the top 12."  I think this is about as low as he'd get in this list barring injury or a contract in Japan.

10.  Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox
2022:  .301/.339/.734    6HR, 25RBI, 14BB, 55K

Another half-season for Tim Anderson and another season lost.  We may never really know how good Tim Anderson's hit tool could be as he's only been able to put together two full seasons in his career and none since 2018.  I would need a guarantee of 140 games to feel truly comfortable with him as my starting SS, coupled with the fact that the White Sox just lost Jose Abreu to the Astros.  But if he's healthy, this is a batting champion, 20/20 hitter with 100 runs in that lineup.

9.  Bobby Witt, Kansas City Royals
2022:  .254/.294/.722   20HR, 80RBI, 30BB, 135K

First, add a 30SB season to that stat line and you'll understand why I've got him just a bit higher here.  The Royals still aren't ready to compete but they're pushing closer and closer to mediocrity and this guy will be leading their charge.  Nice round numbers here with a 20/80/30 season.  The problem here is the K rate (21.2%) and the abysmal OBP which is worse than Joey Wendle and only slightly better than Javier Baez.  So, you can see where this profile could go sideways and the comp is Javy Baez here.  If he loses the strike zone, begins trying to crush as much as he can to be the hero in KC, we could see him be a disaster in his sophomore season.  But upside and talent tells us this could be a 30/30 guy for years to come.  This could be the last chance to get in on him outside of the top 2 rounds for the next decade so, get on the train now.

8.  Xander Bogaerts, Free Agent
2022:  .307/.377/.833   15HR, 73RBI, 57BB, 118K

After Bogaerts opted out of his contract in Boston, the world became his oyster and he joined a really nice class of Free Agent SS's looking for a future home.  I think he'll be handsomely rewarded given his track record and talent over the past 5 seasons.  Xander has played no less than 136 games in any full season since 2014.  He's been a consistent contributor of steals (8SB in 2022) that could come up with the larger bases for a year or two.  He is entering his age-30 season and already has two championship rings to his career.  Go wherever you want, Xander and enjoy the rest of your career.  If it's Philly, I'm going to have a hard time rooting for the most underrated player in Major League Baseball.  

7.  Dansby Swanson, Free Agent
2022:  .277/.329/.776    25HR, 96RBI, 49BB, 182K

The third of four SS's looking for a home this off-season is former #1 overall pick in the MLB draft, Swason.  He comes off a career year with 99R, 96RBI, 18SB but a horrible K%.  He benefitted immensely from the Ozzie Albies injury (again) and comes off back to back 160+ game seasons.  He's primed to land a massive contract.  He is, right now, the most volatile of the free agent SS's based on landing spot, however, as I'm not sure his talent level or upside is as high as the other three, but I'm putting respect on a very good season and ranking him here.  This, however, is the top of the second tier and I don't see much of a way (barring injury) he could crack the top group I'm about to list off.

6.  Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
2022:  .290/.333/.802    24HR, 93RBI, 13SB, 41BB, 155K

Bo needed to have a torrid stretch in September to make these numbers as respectable as they are. 
His Sept/Oct:  .406/.444/1.105, 7HR, 27RBI, 4SB, 24R.

Now look at his overall line after taking that out.  He had 54 hits in the time period of September and October to lift that BA up to 290.  I think he's elite.  I think the lineup is elite and I think he'll have plenty of opportunity to succeed.  But there are names above him I just like more and I like their situations more.  I'm also not impressed with how Toronto is playing as a ballpark when it comes to power numbers.  Vlad is down, Bo is down, Teo is gone... I'm just watching this lineup in 23 to see if the power returns.

5.  Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers
2022:  .248/.304/.733   26HR, 83RBI, 53BB, 120K

(COPIED FROM 2B RANKINGS)
25/25 season for Semien as he gave you exactly 25SB, 101 runs scored, 31 doubles, and played 155+ games for the 6th season in the last 7 full seasons.  Set it, forget it, give me 20/20 minimum.   Do I think the 45/102 he had in 2021 is the ceiling?  Yes, but there's no reason he can't give you something similar to a 30/30 season with a few small improvements to the Rangers lineup.  Imagine if he and Seager had more than just Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia to help?  What if they go get a real DH like JD Martinez instead of B(r)ad Miller?  If you want this guy, you'll probably have to pull the trigger before the 40th pick of the draft.  But if I can get him in the 3rd round of a 16 team league, I'm going to do backflips.

4.  Francisco Lindor, New York Mets
2022:  .270/.339/.788   26HR, 107RBI, 59BB, 133K

So much for him being a bum, right?  Maybe there really is something to him signing a big deal in New York and struggling in his first season.  This was a VERY nice season for Lindor with the stat line above, 98R and 16SB.  This is the kind of stat line I think we can expect for another 3-4 years.  Somewhere near .270, 20-25 homers, 90-100 RBI and okay plate discipline ratios.  This was a career high in K's for him, but also a career high in RBI.  He's no longer expected to be the table-setting, base-stealing guy he was in Cleveland so the expectations of 20 steals is probably out.  But 15+ is always welcomed.  He's an anchor.  Safe.  Draft with pride.

3.  Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
2022:  .245/.317/.772   33HR, 83RBI, 58BB, 103K

Corey Seager was the only other shortstop to hit 30 home runs in 2022.  He had what some are describing this off-season as a "bad" first season in Texas.  He had his first full, healthy season since 2016 when he won Rookie of the Year.  He'll be turning 29 in April.  None of this is why I'm pushing chips toward Corey Seager's return in 2023.  Two simple words that no longer apply to his at-bats.  

The Shift.  92.8% of his at bats in 2022, there was a small army of dudes on the right side of the field ready to gobble up anything he put in play.  He had a Barrel % of 10.5, an average exit velo over 91mph, an XBA of .283, and a BABIP of .242.  This guy was MERCILESSLY defeated by the shift and sold out for power as the season went along.  18 of his 33 homers came after July 1st.  July was his best month, hitting .318 with a 1.041 OPS and 8HR.  It's there.  The defensive positioning will improve this.  Just know he comes with absolutely no speed.  15 career steals.  Career.

2.  Fernando Tatis Jr, San Diego Padres
2022:  Did Not Play.  Wrist injury from a motorcycle accident, then suspended 80 games for PEDs, off-season shoulder surgery he should've had before the 2021 season.... he'll miss the first 20 games of the 23 season due to the suspension.

But it's Tatis.  Look at his 2021 numbers to see what he can do with 130 games:
.282/.364/.975,  42HR, 97RBI, 25SB, 62BB, 99R

If you're not drafting this guy in the first round, you're probably not drafting this guy unless he falls to you in the second, right?  The lineup is him, Cronenworth, Machado, Soto, Kim... which is interesting in itself.  Ha-Seong Kim had a great 2022 season in replacement of Tatis.  There's a non-zero percent chance that Tatis is brought back as an outfielder to protect himself against injury.  They also do not immediately have an answer to playing 2B if Cronenworth is slotted as their 1B.  Tatis will play, obviously, but the point here is that he may come with extra eligibility than initially expected and that makes him just slightly more exciting than the names below him.

1.  Trea Turner, Free Agent
2022:  .298/.343/.809,  21HR, 100RBI, 45BB, 131K

Add in 101R, 27SB and you've got an MVP caliber player on the market and selecting his next landing spot.  The health concerns have, in my opinion, been put to bed after back-to-back 148+ game seasons and, save for being hit by a pitch in his fingers in 2019, he's played a full season every year since 2018.  NO reason to believe that will change going into his age-30 season.  He's got his ring, he's got his batting championship, now it's time to go toward the HOF career in this off-season's landing spot.  Wherever he goes, he will be the best SS in the league at this point and warrants consideration for the #1 overall player selected in 2023.