It's The Bigs Blog #5 - Way Too Early 3B Rankings

 Welcome to December and the winter meetings!  Justin Verlander just signed in Queens, Trea Turner just signed in Philly, Jacob deGrom signed in Texas and things are really heating up for 2023.  As these signings happen, I'll be reviewing these rankings I'm putting out and will update with 2.0 and 3.0 versions before draft season hits.  In the meanwhile, let's visit the hot corner as these blogs now line up with the numerical positioning of the infield.  

Honorable Mentions:  Justin Turner, Yoan Moncada, DJ LeMahieu and JD Davis.  One sentence on each.  Justin Turner's health is always the question but he's a relaiable source of RBI and batting average that could come at a discount this year.  We'll always be chasing 2019 with Yoan Moncada but if we're going to see a resurgence, this has to be the season with Jose Abreu now out of that lineup.  DJL was covered at 2B, please refer there.  JD Davis might be one of those sneaky trades the Giants make that could unlock a new plateau for this guy.  Give him 3B all season now that Longoria is gone and see what he's made of.

15.  Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels
2022:  .229/.326/.706   5HR, 24RBI, 23BB, 35K - 166 AT BATS

It was another lost season for Anthony Rendon and suddenly the 2019 career year seems so long ago.  He's played exactly 157 games since that season ended for the Angels across 3 calendar years.  He hit a home run left handed.  Off a position player.  So, that was fun.  Realistically, his upside might be back toward 20 homers if all things break right but I'm only putting him here for this breakdown because I wanted to point out how few games he's really played and how long ago the dragon anyone is chasing really is.  He's going to play if he's healthy, without a doubt.  His 38M each of the next 4 years demands it.  That contract looks like Albert Pujols 2.0 at this point.

14.  Eduardo Escobar, New York Mets
2022:  .240/.295/.725  20HR, 69RBI, 40BB, 129K

I'd like to personally thank Eduardo Escobar for his contributions to the 2022 New York Mets team.  Playing perfectly acceptable defense and being a professional in all stages gives him just the slightest boost in my rankings here.  That said, I'm willing to buy in on a bounce-back season from Escobar here given his absolutely atrocious summer seeing him hit .212/.207/.220/.177 from May through August respectively.  A fat September made his numbers look respectable in the end and with the Mets almost definitely improving the lineup this off-season, I'll take Escobar for a play here.

13.  Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies
2022:  .246/.327/.741   20HR, 67RBI, 60BB, 158K

This is the stereotypical "Good in Coors, Bad on the Road" guy playing in Colorado.  The sad part is that those numbers, coupled with what could be double-digit SBs with the bigger bases, make him a realistic play if Colorado gets a healthy Bryant and something new to play with in the lineup.  He walks more than enough to be an OBP contributor and if he figures out how to hit on the road even SLIGHTLY better, I'll take the 28 year old season of this guy over everyone above him on this list. 

12.  Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
2022:  .196/.329/.713   21HR, 69RBI, 90BB, 141K

Max Muncy in April:  .136/.313/.586  2HR, 9RBI, 16/17 BB/K, 7R, 3 2B.
Max Muncy ROS - .206/.332/.734    19HR, 60RBI, 74/124 BB/K, 62R, 19 2B.

If the stat line was the bottom one for the season and he missed April because of the elbow injury he was coming into the season with, would we be shitting on this guy as hard as we are?  Unless this guy leaves the Dodgers lineup, I'm going to continue to believe the OBP is real, the plate discipline is real, and his Statcast numbers appear to show the same above-average AEV, Barrel %, and Hard Hit %.  But if he benefits from the shift disappearing -- as he was shifted on 89% of his AB's last season -- we could see that BA jump back into the .220 - .230 range.  Which jumps the OBP up as well.  Give me the discount this year.

11.  Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
2022:  .280/.315/.713    13HR, 72RBI, 31BB, 110K

Alec Bohm is an interesting study on how to bring along a young player to truly succeed.  There's absolutely no pressure on this kid to be anything more than a perfectly acceptable 3B like I described for Eduardo Escobar.  The thing about this kid is, we saw flashes of brilliance from this kid and he's no longer selling out for power.  What he needs to be is exactly what we saw in 2022 from him.  A better gap-to-gap hitter who can clean up what's left after the ridiculous lineup feasts.  When Nick Castellanos goes down swinging, as he is very prone to do, someone needs to bail the team out and that's this kid.  The homers could max out at 20 with some maturity and he'll be 26 for most of this season.  Keep learning from these professinoal hitters, especially the one your organization just found, and you'll be top 10 next season.

10.  Eugenio Suarez, Seattle Mariners
2022:  .236/.332/.791    31HR, 87RBI, 73BB, 196K

"What if a change of scenery is all this guy needs?"  - my friend Jason Ashby as he drafted Suarez to his team in 2022.  Welcome back, "Gino" to relevance at third base.  Only 23 hitters in all of baseball hit 30 home runs in 2022.  Suarez was one of them.  That, along with the improvements the M's have made this off-season (see Teoscar Hernandez, Kolten Wong, and I doubt they're done) give me all the belief in the world he's going to see another strong season.  If the lineup is Julio/France/Suarez/Teoscar... or some semblance of those, we could see 100RBI very easily this season for Suarez and that could propel him back into the top 7 next season.

9.  Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
2022:  .259/.348/.788    4HR, 18RBI, 16BB, 34K  -  116 AB

One of my favorite guys to watch play during his call-up in late 2022 and I was very happy I got to see him play live in September during my fantasy baseball playoffs.  This is probably really inflated based on that small crush I have on him, but the Orioles are going to make some waves this season.  I still think 2024 is the year we're going to see them truly ascend, but they were relevant in 2022 and it was because of the young core of players including Henderson.  A full season at this level could see 20 homers and 10 steals with a serviceable batting average.  Unfortunately, the floor would be AAA.

8.  Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays
2022:  .296/.401/.824    9HR, 57RBI, 78BB, 60K

This is Juan Soto without the power.  The Tampa Bay Rays have the left side of their infield locked up for years to come with Diaz and Franco and I'm almost certain that if Diaz goes to another team, I'd drop him down my rankings like a body hitting the East River back in the 1920s.  And 50s.  And 80s.  He is in the second-to-last year of arbitration at 31 years old, so I could see the Rays wanting to move him at some point... and the price would never be better coming off that stat line... and they don't necessarily have a position for him, Isaac Paredes, Jonathan Aranda and top prospect Curtis Mead... soooo, look out.  Something's going to move in Tampa and as long as Yandy is planted there, I'm in.  

7.  Bobby Witt Jr.  Kansas City Royals
2022:  .254/.294/.722     20HR, 80RBI, 30BB, 135K

(COPIED FROM SS RANKINGS)
First, add a 30SB season to that stat line and you'll understand why I've got him just a bit higher here.  The Royals still aren't ready to compete but they're pushing closer and closer to mediocrity and this guy will be leading their charge.  Nice round numbers here with a 20/80/30 season.  The problem here is the K rate (21.2%) and the abysmal OBP which is worse than Joey Wendle and only slightly better than Javier Baez.  So, you can see where this profile could go sideways and the comp is Javy Baez here.  If he loses the strike zone, begins trying to crush as much as he can to be the hero in KC, we could see him be a disaster in his sophomore season.  But upside and talent tells us this could be a 30/30 guy for years to come.  This could be the last chance to get in on him outside of the top 2 rounds for the next decade so, get on the train now.

6.  Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
2022:  .259/.366/.820     23HR, 93RBI, 87BB, 77K

This guy is as safe as humanly possible entrenched in the middle of the Houston lineup.  Let's not forget that the only reason we were down on him coming into 2022 was because of an injury concern that cost him half a season in 2021.  Otherwise, he's played 150 games or more each of his 4 other full seasons and has been an elite level OBP guy regardless of his power output.  We'll never see him hit 40 homers again, maybe never even 30 homers again.  But of the "20/80" guys we've seen on this list (and it's the vast majority of the list), he's by far the best.   I'll happily take him at another perceived discount while his K% continues to go down and his BB% maintains at a HIGHER rate.  

5.  Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
2022:  .295/.358/.879     27HR, 88RBI, 50BB, 114K

This was so hard to rank Devers ahead of Bregman because I think Bregman is the better baseball player, but I think Devers will see more opportunity to approach the ceiling we saw back in 21.  30HR is absolutely attainable in that ballpark for this lefty.  Chip in a very respectable mid 300s OBP, he'll be driving in a ton of runs so long as the rest of the lineup stays healthy.  That said, this is the case of the "best guy on a bad team" vs "another good hitter on a great team" argument that I've wrestled with.   I even asked my colleagues on the podcast between these two.  I won't divulge their answers.  What's your answer?  Devers or Bregman for 2023?

4.  Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
2022:  .273/.349/.877     38HR, 93RBI, 57BB, 168K

Okay so this kid can actually hit.  The .300 season in 2021 might be the ceiling, but he's not going to continue to embarrass himself with a 30% K rate like we saw when he came up.  He's also going to make 22 million dollars from now until 2032, so he's not going anywhere from that lineup.  The easiest word I can use for this kid, as crazy as it sounds, is SAFE.  3rd round, he's there, take him and worry about a backup deep in the draft.  If you average his games played from his 4 seasons in the league... including the Covid year and his rookie year, he's still averaging 112 games played.  Rendon is averaging 76.  Muncy 120.  Moncada 108.  Go take Riley and enjoy your season of safety.

3.  Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
2022:  .293/.358/.891     30HR, 103RBI, 52BB, 72K

"Nolan Arenado used to be .300/30/100/100 and was a first round hitter every year.  No chance he ever does that in St. Louis" - me, 2021.  I ranked him 6th going to STL in his first season and 7th after his first season in STL.  I'll take this moment to publicly apologize to Mr. Arenado for ever doubting his abilities and will rank him inside the top 3 this season.  He's got numbers better than Riley in everything but HR and BB, but the K's are what absolutely put it over the top for me.  His run totals are lower (73 in 2022) than we would like but since he primarily hits behind Goldschmidt, there weren't really many other hitters to drive him in due to inexperience and injury.  If we get a full season of Tyler O'Neill at his peak or Juan Yepez at his peak or a big bat for DH, we could definitely see that run total come back.

2.  Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
2022:  .298/.366/.897     32HR, 102RBI, 63BB, 133K

This was another hair-splitter but because I see the Padres as the stronger lineup at the moment, I'm giving Machado the edge here.  Second, Machado contributed 9SB in 22 which I can only imagine will, at bare minimum, maintain in 23 with the larger bases being installed.  Machado also gave 100 runs scored, which is the "300/30/100/100" threshold I love to point to.  A full season of Soto, the return of Tatis, and whatever other maniacal signings and trades AJ Preller has up his sleeve, this man will not move from that lineup.  He's firmly entrenched as the leader on this team and the success or failure of the Padres will be on his shoulders.  Sign me up for his age 30 season.... and prepare for a possible opt-out at season's end.  He has that in his contract to go re-test the waters.  

1.  Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
2022:  .280/.355/.869     29HR, 126RBI, 69BB, 82K

5 eligible players at third base had 20 or more steals.  Berti, Witt, Rojas, Hayes and this guy.
5 eligible players at third base had 29 or more HR.   Riley, Machado, Suarez, Arenado and this guy.
3 eligible players at third base had 100 or more RBI.   Machado, Arenado and this guy.
He led the position in RBI.  
He led the position in doubles.  
Only 3 eligible players at third base had a K% lower than his.  Arenado, Bregman, and Diaz.
He was shifted upon 93.9% of his at bats from the left side.  That goes away.  The bases are getting bigger.  He's 30 all season this year.  He just signed through 2028 to be a Guardian.

This guy deserves real consideration to go #1 overall this year.