It's The Bigs Blog #7 - Early Starting Pitcher Tiers

Last one before the holidays I wanted to get out to everyone.  Blessed Winter Solstice to you all and may the year coming be filled with peace and love.  Maybe even a playoff team if you study these rankings well enough!  Today we'll be going over SP tiers in the same way we did outfielders.  This, however, is one of the greatest class of pitchers I've had the pleasure of putting together rankings for.  It's amazing how deep SP is this year and it's my favorite position to explore.  With no further ado, let's get this kicked off.

Tier 1:  The Aces of Aces 
Sandy Alcantara, Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, Shane McClanahan, Julio Urias, Justin Verlander

The two current Cy Young Award winners bookend this group, but this is in no particular order.  Each of these guys has one thing that I can count on.  Volume.  McClanahan may be the weakest of the group with track record of large IP totals, but I firmly believe this is a season the Rays will be all-in with their pitching.  Urias, Burnes, Cole, Verlander will all anchor staffs of winning and playoff-worthy teams so expect high win totals for all.  That leaves Sandy as the necessary volume guy of this group.  Without the enormous volume of innings he's known for, I doubt he'll finish among this group in the upcoming season.  The Marlins have done nothing to upgrade either their offense or their bullpen enough to make me believe he's going to be in line for anything more than 12 wins.  This early, I'd like someone I can realistically believe could win 20.  

Tier 2:  The Aces of Other Staffs 
Aaron Nola, Shane Bieber, Zack Wheeler, Framber Valdez, Alek Manoah, Dylan Cease, Jacob deGrom, Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Brandon Woodruff, Carlos Rodon, Yu Darvish, Christian Javier, Nestor Cortes

 Again, no order here but I'll try to hit everyone in one sentence or so but the overall thing I want to point out is that we're already 21 pitchers deep and there's not a single guy on this list (barring health concerns) that I would feel BAD about having as my ace.

Nola and Wheeler provide a sick 1-2 punch for Philly who has aspirations of repeating 2021's success and they may come as a really nice discount.  If someone's going to fall, I'm going to hope it's one of these two guys because they may be the cream of this crop and that's really saying something.

If it isn't those two, I'll take Shane Bieber in here too.  200 innings exactly with a 2.88 ERA and a strikeout per inning.  

Framber Valdez was filthy this past year with 17 wins, a 2.82 ERA and greater than a 4:1 GB/FB ratio meaning for every fly ball he gave up, he got 4 ground balls.  The shift being "banned" will certainly negatively affect his WHIP as we'll presumably see more of those ground balls become hits, but I don't think that's any reason to downgrade this guy who will be on a super-strong team in Houston yet again.

Alek Manoah, Spencer Strider, Christian Javier I'll lump together as "wow, do it again" guys.  Each of them is a different kind of special.  Strider's 202K in only 131.2 innings comes from only two really strong pitches in a 4 seam fastball and a Slider.  If one of those pitches is off that day and teams can eliminate it as a competitive pitch, they'll look to crush the other.  I would like to see him develop something.  This time last season, Manoah was a "what if he's the best of the Blue Jays guys?" and he was.  2.24 ERA, 16 wins, 196.2 IP and a really good FB/Slider combination that accounted for 130 of his 180Ks.  Where he differs from Strider is the K upside, but Manoah boasts a 3rd pitch in the Sinker and a 4th pitch in a change up.  All four had BAA of under .225 in 2022.  That's special.  But Christian Javier may be the most special of the three.  148.2IP, 194K, 2.54 ERA and suddenly steps into a hole in the Houston rotation vacated by Verlander.  His 4 pitch mix is absolute money and if you saw him pitch in the 2022 post-season you know exactly how good he can be.  Don't you, Yankee fans?

Saving space:
* deGrom gets a similar park in Texas and a yacht full of money to leave New York.  Best of luck, Jake.
* Dylan Cease scares me. He has such a walk problem that there's absolutely no way he can repeat what he did in 2022.  He'll be vastly over-drafted on his K potential but if you think you're getting a 2.20 WHIP, no way.
* Max Fried is safe, reliable, and boring on a winning team.  He's like Greg Maddux that way.  Just not that high an upside.
* The same can be said for Brandon Woodruff and Yu Darvish.  Safe, every 5th day guys that you can feel good about plugging into your lineup.

That leaves us with Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon.  The lefty Yankee duo that will now be with Severino behind Gerrit Cole.  This Rodon signing officially puts the Yankees, in my opinion, within the realm of the Astros.  The pitching still seems weakest on the Yankees side bridging a gap to Clay Holmes... and Clay Holmes himself, but overall these two should return some pretty nice upside this season.  Don't fear Rodon as a lefty in Yankee Stadium as righties will have to go opposite field or he'll have to get crushed lefty/lefty.  He gave up 12 HR's last year in San Francisco and I could see that number inflate slightly, but not anywhere egregious.  If Rodon falls, I'll be happy to scoop him up.

Tier 3:  Oh Look, More Aces.  
Joe Musgrove, Zac Gallen, Max Scherzer, Shohei Ohtani, Luis Castillo, Triston McKenzie, Clayton Kershaw, Logan Gilbert, Logan Webb, Miles Mikolas, Tony Gonsolin, Tyler Anderson, Merrill Kelly, Chris Sale, Cal Quantrill

Would it surprise any of you if anyone on this list was at least an all-star?  Let's get the easy ones out of the way:

* Kershaw will throw 130 innings, maximum next season.  But they'll be good when he's there.  If he's your 3, holy shit.  
* Shohei Ohtani may never put up a 200 inning season simply because he plays everyday as a DH.  That limits his upside as an "ace"
*  Miles Mikolas and Merrill Kelly are the most boring names you've seen thus far, but they're guys who should be respected for seasons they put up and the fact that volume should be rewarded. 
*  Triston McKenzie, Logan Gilbert, Tyler Anderson, Chris Sale, Cal Quantrill.  One of these guys will be awesome, one of these guys will be an absolute bust and three will be serviceable.  You pick which one you like best.  For me, I'll lean Gilbert based on situation but McKenzie and Quantrill are both really nice pieces of a playoff-contending team.

Joe Musgrove is finally the guy Pittsburgh thought he was when they traded away Gerrit Cole for him.  But now we're here and he's gone 180+ innings each of the last two seasons with over a strikeout an inning and, in 2022, an ERA south of 3.  For some reason, though, he only got 10 wins while having 21 Quality Starts out of 30 total games started.  20 of his starts he went 6 innings or more.  Perhaps there's some Jacob deGrom-itis with the Padres offense and Musgrove starts?

I once told my co-host Mike Haber that there was no "sustained success" from Zac Gallen and I feared 2022 because of an injury in the early season.  Color me wrong here with both him and the guy I was in favor of, Logan Gilbert, falling in this tier.  Gallen was phenomenal with his 184 innings and 12 wins with over a K per inning.  The DBacks are on the rise and this is their workhorse leader.

Max Scherzer finds himself in the third tier.  Go figure.  Thing is, he's not gone 180 innings since 2018 so I'm not sure the volume will be there for the full season.  When he's in there, he'll be money.  But the days of 200 innings from Max are done.

Finally, Logan Webb.  He's the strange case of "why is he good"?  His sinking fastball sits 92 at best where his slider and change up appear to be traveling at relatively similar speeds but getting far better BAA, perhaps simply based on the change of speed alone.  The sinker had a .327 BAA which definitely contributed to his 1.16 WHIP which is only behind Quantrill and Gilbert in this tier.  He has a better-than-average GB/FB rate of 2.38/1 but, again, with the shift being "banned" we could see those grounders go for hits, especially without elite defense and another season of Brandon Crawford, JD Davis and Wilmer Flores.  I think I'm out.

Tier 4:  Here Comes Some 2s and 3s 
Chris Bassitt, Luis Severino, Taijuan Walker, Lance Lynn, Patrick Sandoval, Marcus Stroman, Jeffrey Springs, Tyler Glasnow, Drew Rasmussen, Luis Garcia, Kyle Wright, Martin Perez, Robbie Ray, Andrew Heaney

Quick hits because I'm going to go far too long:

*  Bassitt in Toronto worries me as he's also a ground ball pitcher and now playing on turf, combined with the shift ban, and the poor Toronto infield defense, we could see that 3.42 ERA be rather similar or even a tick or two up going to the AL East.
*  Severino as the 3/4 in the Yankees rotation is much more palatable than him as the 2.  He does give up a lot of hard contact but had a very low BABIP in 2022.  I'm cautious but if he's my #4 in a rotation, I'm definitely not disappointed.
* Walker to Philly reeks of regression.  I personally hate it and won't be buying a single share.
*  Lance Lynn was hurt last year.  He's a work horse at 36 years old who is on a walk year in 2023.  Buy in, get the volume, reap the rewards.  You heard it here.
*  Marcus Stroman is the head of a bunch of "yeah, okay" guys in Wrigleyville.  His sinker plays well there regardless of the shift and plays regardless of whether it's windy there or not.
*  Luis Garcia concerns me as his rotation spot wasn't used in the playoffs and I'm not sure the Astros view him as a piece going forward with Hunter Brown on the way.
*  Kyle Wright won't win 21 games next season.  I know, bold prediction.  How's this, his ERA next season will be closer to 4.20 than 3.20
*  Martin Perez not being the ace, or even the 2 in Texas is much nicer.  He and Andrew Heaney as lefties backing up deGrom is a pretty nice duo if they both stay healthy.  I'd lean Perez over Heaney if you made me choose.
*  Robbie Ray gets K's.  When you're picking your rotation out this season, you should be cognizant of what statistics your pitchers thrive in.  If you got people like Max Fried or Cal Quantrill or others who don't thrive in K's, Ray is a nice fall-back option to supplement those totals.

The Rays guys of Springs, Glasnow and Rasmussen.  I purposely put them all here because each comes with an incredibly large question mark attached.  First, for Glasnow, is nothing more than health.  Glasnow has never pitched more than 112 innings in any one season.  He has never pitched more than 88 innings in a Rays uniform.  He was a two-pitch guy with fastball/curveball but he's implemented a slider and ditched his change-up.  He's a dart throw but he's a fun dart throw if you've filled your rotation with safe dudes.  Springs started 25 games this past season and never went more than 6 innings.  He went to 100 pitches once.  I don't see him making a huge jump with McClanahan and potentially Glasnow eating as many innings as they will.  Drew Rasmussen is different still because of his low K totals.  He's probably going to have more innings than Springs and if anything happens to Glasnow, is the first guy I'll bump up.  

That leaves Patrick Sandoval.  Okay, hear me out on this.  Ohtani will be pushed to the max because the Angels have no reason not to use him as much as they can on his walk year.  The rest of the rotation is Tyler Anderson, Jose Suarez and Reid Detmers.  This dude is going to get a TON of run based on a really nice August for the Angels in 2022.  I was disappointed not getting him this past year but seeing as the Angels were a dumpster fire... again... I'll happily take another year and a discount on this kid.  He could be their ace after Ohtani's gone.

Tier 5:  Holy Shit, These Guys are Good Too!  
Pablo Lopez, Brady Singer, Joe Ryan, Jordan Montgomery, Carlos Carrasco, George Kirby, Jon Gray, Sonny Gray, Michael Kopech, Jesus Luzardo, Ross Stripling, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Alex Cobb, Jose Quintana, Charlie Morton, Mike Clevinger, Zack Eflin, Noah Syndergaard, Jack Flaherty

Quick hits:
*  Brady Singer, Joe Ryan, George Kirby, Michael Kopech, Jesus Luzardo.  All young, inexperienced former top prospects getting ready to go to war with the teams they'll represent for, perceivably, the next 3-5 years.  My favorite in the group is Kirby based on current team structure and pressure on him overall.  Singer will have a place in my heart for the 2020 finals.  Hi Frank.  We're deep at this point and this is more to point out how deep SP really is.  These guys could all find themselves 2-3 tiers higher by 2023's season's end.
*  Jordan Montgomery, Carlos Carrasco, the Grays, Cobb, Quintana, Morton, Snell, Clevinger, Syndergaard, Flaherty.  Cobb's a guy you'll see an ugly stat line from 2022 but the Giants are miracle workers.  See more on that in a moment.  Montgomery and Flaherty look like a nice middle of the Cards rotation but... is Flaherty just something we're chasing from 2019's second half?  He has not been anywhere near that good in a very long time and I'm not going to buy it again and again with diminishing returns.  At this point, I'd probably take Monty first.  Carrasco may not be a Met by opening day because Quintana is on the team now... Morton is a sneaky buy-low on a great team coming off a less-than-great year.  Clevinger on the White Sox is really a lot of fun, but that defense is frightening behind him.  If anyone's fixing Noah, it's the Dodgers.

"Pablo Lopez is a future Cy Young Winner."  - Joe Schubert 2020 when Pablo burst onto the scene with his electric change up and very good fastball combination that was fooling dudes and making people like me giddy watching him pitch.  Then he was hurt in 2021 and missed the entire second half but looked to be on his way to throwing near a 3 ERA with good K totals but very low win totals because the Marlins are bad.  2022 came along and he looked INCREDIBLE early.  An 0.39 ERA in April where he gave up 1 run in 4 games 23 innings.  May he filtered out to a 2.78 ERA and everything looked great.  This was the coming out party.  This was the proclamation coming true. Then June 17th happened.  He faced the New York Mets.  5.1, 6ER.  He faced them again in August.  2.2IP, 6ER.  Pablo finally got to 180 innings and had a 3.75 ERA.  Will he win a Cy?  I think he'll need to get to a team that can get him some run support and maybe away from the New York Mets and he's got a chance.  I still love him, though.  Sleep on him again and I'll get him.

Ross Stripling is a signing to San Francisco I think is incredibly intriguing going to San Francisco and falls in line with many of the pieces they've reclaimed over the last few years.  This reeks of Rodon, Gausman, Wood, etc.

Zack Eflin was given a "huge" contract for Tampa Bay.  There's gotta be something there if they're throwing that money at him.  With McClanahan, the 3 from the above tier and this guy, that rotation may be pretty solid.

The rest will have no write up.  Enjoy!

Tier 6:  Okay Here's some questions  
Michael Wacha, Nathan Eovaldi, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Jose Urquidy, Cole Irvin, Mackenzie Gore, David Peterson, Jose Berrios, Adam Wainwright, Frankie Montas, Tyler Mahle, Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber, Hunter Greene, Eric Lauer

Tier 7:  Are We Deep Enough?  
Grayson Rodriguez, Nick Lodolo, Josiah Gray, Ian Anderson, Mitch White,  Kyle Muller, Alex Wood, Trevor Rogers, Aaron Civale, Shane Baz, Hunter Brown, Keegan Thompson, Reid Detmers, Jose Suarez, Nick Pivetta

Tier 8:  Better Dart Throws than ever 
Dustin May, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Kyle Gibson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Matz, Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Tarik Skubal, Domingo German, Kyle Hendricks, Freddy Peralta, Zack Plesac, Kenta Maeda

Tier 9:  We've still got pitchers!?  
Trevor Williams, Michael Lorenzen, Edward Cabrera, James Paxton, Trevor Bauer, Mike Soroka, Casey Mize

How many is THAT?!  125(ish).  In a 16 team league, that's over 7 per team.  Injuries will happen, but man this is a ridiculously deep group of pitchers this season that will make for an incredible year.