It's The Bigs Blog #11 - Raise the Jolly Roger for the 2023 Pittsburgh Pirates
Who are the 2023 Pittsburgh Pirates? At first glance, they appear to be nothing more than another last-place, rag-tag group of veterans nearing the end, rookies coming through the system and reclamation projects in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle. At writing, this group is 18-8 and in first place of the NL Central. That sentence -- in and of itself -- is something I never thought I'd write on this blog in April, but here we are. Let's look over this group and see how we got here:
Rotation:
Mitch Keller - 27 y/o - Drafted, 2nd Round, 2014. This is the next Gerrit Cole, Joe Musgrove... he's the ace of the future. I don't know that he has the ceiling of either of those guys... or even half that of those guys, but this is the ace of the future.
Vince Velasquez - 30 y/o - Signed 1yr/3.15M - Vinny V has been that fringe streamer pitcher in fantasy circles that you'd try to find during his journey through MLB. Starting with Houston then going to Philadelphia for the bulk of his career thus far, before last season in the south side of Chicago and now here in Pittsburgh. He's always had electricity to his fastball but he could never find a way to put it all together. We've seen the Pirates do magic with guys like this before. AJ Burnett, Ivan Nova, and Jon Niese come to mind. It wasn't that long ago that Chris Archer, Jordan Lyles, and Francisco Liriano were trying to reclaim their greatness here. This isn't that far removed from those.
Rich Hill - 43 y/o - Signed 1yr/8M - The journeyman to end all journeymen. 43 years old throwing junkballs that would make Jamie Moyer proud. From a 25-year-old rookie in 2005 until now, the man I lovingly refer to as "Dick Mountain" brings the veteran leadership this young team needs.
Roansy Contreras - 23 y/o - part of Jameson Taillon trade with NYY in 2021 - Now we start to talk about what these Pirates have done over the last couple years to begin expanding on this roster. Jameson Taillon became a Yankee in 2021 and for his services, the Pirates got 4 young prospects with Roansy Contreras leading the charge. A second member of that group will be highlighted later. He features a 4 pitch mix (SL, 4SFB, CRV, CHG) and relies heavily on the fastball and slider combination. The Curve appears to be a work in progress only getting about 11% usage thus far this season but that's enough to be a complete change of pace from the fastball/slider.
Johan Oviedo - 25 y/o - part of the Quintana/Stratton trade with STL in 2022 - Another key piece of a big trade one year later for the Pirates, Oviedo was one half of this return for Jose Quintana and Chris Stratton during the Cardinals push toward the NL Central title. Oviedo could be the real future ace of this staff, however, boasting a strong 4-pitch arsenal and has begun adding a sinker to his repertoire to truly become that 5-pitch monster the Pirates hope he can become.
Bullpen:
David Bednar - 28 y/o - part of 3 team deal with SDP and NYM involving Joe Musgrove in 2021. - Arguably the best pitcher for these Pirates the last couple seasons has been their closer David Bednar. This guy falls into the mold of Clay Holmes, Richard Rodriguez, Felipe Vazquez and older names like Joel Hanrahan as a top quality closer on a very bad team. The fastball is his primary weapon but he boasts two other pitches (spitter and curve) that hitters have to respect and prepare for as they can be lethal. I don't know that Bednar is going to stick around much longer as he's about to enter arbitration and when a closer racks up a ton of saves like Bednar will this and presumably next season, his value to a neutral arbiter goes through the roof. I could see a trade here to allow someone else to take this role in 2024.
Colin Holderman - 27 y/o - Traded by NYM for Daniel Vogelbach in 2022. - Mets fans will remember Holderman for being the rubber-armed bulk guy the Mets would trot out during blowout games in the first half of the 2022 season. Either up by a lot or down by a lot, here came Holderman. But, his role is not without previous tenure by other successful players. Paul Sewald, closer for the Mariners, had that role for a while. Rafael Montero, setup man for Houston, had that role before too. I'm not suggesting that Holderman will become those guys, but I'm also not going to leave that type of comparison off the table either.
Duane Underwood Jr - 28 y/o - Traded by CHC for Shendrik Apostel (minor leaguer) in 21 - A lifetime 4.42 ERA across 160 innings doesn't raise any eyebrows nor does his lifetime 40.4% hard hit percentage. HOWEVER, this particular season, he's lowered that to 30%, lowered his BB% by almost 6% over 2022, and throws 4 of his 5 pitches nearly 25% of the time so that hitters have no idea what is coming. Change, Sinker, Cutter, Curve are his 4 pitches and if he can throw any of them in any counts at any time, it's nearly impossible to determine which way the ball is going or how fast it'll be coming at you. THIS could be your future closer.
Robert Stephenson - 30 y/o - Selected off waivers from COL in 2022. - This guy was so bad in 2022 that the Colorado Rockies designated him for assignment and the Pirates decided to give him a shot. He had an ERA north of 5 in 2022 for the Rox and really is only a 2-pitch pitcher with a fastball and a slider. If one of those is off for a day, the hitters can sit on the other and crush it. But, since he was essentially free for the Pirates off waivers, I expect him to get some run this season.
Jose Hernandez - 25 y/o - Selected off waivers from LAD in 2022. - The Dodgers felt this 25 year old rookie couldn't help them this season and Pittsburgh will give him a shot to prove he's capable of being in the MLB. 3 pitch pitcher (FB/SL/CH) and working on a 4th in a sinker. For essentially free, he and Stephenson could eat some innings or be in the minors/DFA before the All Star Break.
Dauri Moreta - 27 y/o - Traded by CIN for Kevin Newman in 2021 - So the Reds sent Kyle Farmer to the Twins and sent this kid Moreta to the Pirates to replace Farmer with Kevin Newman. Control has been and will continue to be the issue with this kid as he's walking people at a 20% clip currently, more than twice his rate in 2022 but that also coincides with a spike in K% almost 10 points higher than his career average. This might be attributed to the spike in slider usage thus far this season, nearly doubling its usage (25% in 22 to 49% in 23). He's a work in progress but a few tweaks could see this paying off as well.
Yohan Ramirez - 27 y/o - Traded by CLE for cash considerations - Pirates essentially bought this kid from the Cleveland organization after playing for three tams in 2022. He's barely on the roster currently and could bounce between MLB and AAA often with a slew of guys like...
Cody Bolton - 24 y/o - Drafted in 6th round of 2017. - ...like Cody Bolton who is getting his first crack as a major leaguer. Across his 5 seasons in the minors: 258IP, 3.24 ERA, about a K per inning. Another dark horse for a closer's spot down the line here but he was probably drafted to be a starter like most pitchers are. Control is the issue here but he's plenty young enough to learn from a guy like Rich Hill on how to command his pitches.
Infield:
Catcher - Austin Hedges - 30 y/o - Signed 1yr/5M - Journeyman catcher who has absolutely no bat but is a GREAT defensive catcher. He's exactly who should be catching a young core of pitchers like this (Keller, Oviedo, Contreras) and is respected among the others for his game calling, pitch framing and defensive wizardry.
Catcher - Jason Delay - 28 y/o - Drafted in 4th round of 2017. - And here's the catcher for after Hedges leaves. In 57 games last year, Delay hit a putrid .213 with a .265 OBP. These numbers aren't TOO far off from his minor league numbers across 5 seasons (.233/.302) and with only 13 homers in those 5 minor league seasons, we're not talking about an Adley Rutschman kind of prospect here. I think Hedges is a great comparison and hopefully Delay will learn some defensive tricks to improve this staff.
1B - Carlos Santana - 37 y/o - Signed 1yr/6.75M - Carlos Santana had a terrible 2022 for two separate MLB clubs in Seattle and KC, though I think I saw something coming late in 2022 when Carlos was able to rattle off 15 homers in 79 games for the M's down the stretch. Welcome to 2023 where the shift is banned, Carlos Santana still walks like a senior citizen around a local mall, and we're back to a .260 BA in the early going. I don't think the 30 homers we saw before the pandemic will return, but a 20 HR, 80RBI, good OBP season is definitely in the cards.
1B - Connor Joe - 30 y/o - Traded by COL for Nick Garcia (minor leaguer) in 2022. - Imagine being Connor Joe and thinking you have an everyday job in Colorado this upcoming season. Kris Bryant is coming back, Ezequiel Tovar is going to take over SS and you're starting to see these pieces fall into place in Denver. Then you're sent to Pittsburgh. Joe has been torrid this first month, upping his Hard Hit % to over 50%! His BB/K numbers are respectable enough to be sustainable though I truly wonder if the lack of power we saw in Colorado is going to cripple his value in Pittsburgh. Only 15 homers across 2 seasons with Colorado and we know how great that ballpark is to hit in.
2B - Ji Hwan Bae - 23 y/o - Signed as international free agent for league minimum, 725K. Renewable for 3 seasons, Arb eligible until 2029. - This is the first player I'm highlighting that has a LONG future ahead of him. Bae is in the first year of his deal at 23 years old and is the starting center fielder for these Buccos. He's one of the fastest players in the game but is already striking out over 26% of his at-bats. I would be surprised if this strong start continues as pitchers are going to begin adjusting to what Bae can do and, more importantly, what he can't do. He's already struggling against breaking pitches to the tune of a .143 BA (21 AB's, 3 singles) and a 47% whiff percentage on breaking balls.
2B - Rodolfo Castro - 23 y/o - Signed as international free agent for league minimum, 725K. Renewable for 3 seasons, Arb Eligible until 2029. - The biggest beneficiary of the Oneil Cruz injury is this guy whom I think we are also going to see in some capacity for years to come. I'm not sure where that's going to be -- whether a platoon/utility role or somewhere other than middle infield -- but for now, he's doing all of what he needs to do to prove he belongs here. He's lowered his K rate, raised his BB rate, raised his Hard Hit % substantially, and is barrelling the ball more than twice as much as he did all of last season. Much like Bae, I worry about a regression as pitchers begin to figure him out, as he too is hitting only .214 vs breaking balls this season and hit .149 off them all last season.
2B - Mark Mathias - 28 y/o - Traded by TEX for Ricky DeVito (minor leaguer) - Very few at bats this and last season to really analyze what this guy is at the MLB level. He has fewer than 150 MLB AB's. So, he could really be anything but I tend to think that the 28 year old journeyman minor leaguer isn't suddenly going to break out.
2B - Tucupita Marcano - 23 y/o - Traded by SDP for Adam Frazier. - Here we talk about another trade that, at the time, we didn't really understand but is starting to be more clear. Adam Frazier was sent to SD for a three pack of prospects including this guy and someone I'll talk about later. Marcano is an exceptional athlete that should be able to be in the argument for middle infield reps with Oneil Cruz out this season. At 23, his body will develop and the Pirates are hopeful they'll get some more pop out of his 6' frame. Early into his rookie campaign, he's walking as often as he's striking out and hitting the ball very hard. He's so young and it's hard to project the future, but given my takes on the previous 23 year old guys, I'm going to say he begins to regress as pitchers figure him out too.
2B - Drew Maggi - 33 y/o - Drafted 15th round of 2010 draft. - Good to see this guy finally make his debut after 12 full seasons in the minors. But, c'mon...
3B - KeBryan Hayes - 26 y/o Drafted 1st round of 2015. - One of the cornerstones of this rebuild, Hayes really hasn't lived up to expectations yet. 2022 was as close as we've seen to what we should be expecting with a 20SB season, but if he's going to lead off and be the guy for this team going forward to do so, he'll need to improve on the .315 OBP he's put up between the last two seasons.
SS - ONeil Cruz - 24 y/o - Traded by LAD for Tony Watson in 2017. - Tony Watson, a random left handed reliever, brought them their franchise guy. Wow.
Outfield:
Andrew McCutchen - 36 y/o - Signed 1yr/5M - Way to come back where it started, Cutch. I find it even weirder because....
Bryan Reynolds - 28y/o - Traded by SFG for Andrew McCutchen in 2018. - Bryan Reynolds was traded for Cutch in 2018 and became the first guy in the history of the Pirates organization to receive a 9-figure contract this past week.
Jack Suwinski - 24y/o - Traded by SDP for Adam Frazier in 2021. - Ah yes, welcome back to the Frazier trade as we get a perfectly acceptable, patient left field bat who may turn into a solid contributor for years to come. All that for a slap hitter in Frazier who doesn't even play in SD anymore.
Canaan Smith-Njigba - 23 y/o - Traded by NYY for Jameson Taillon in 2021. - Ah back to the Taillon trade for another piece that the Yanks gave up to get Taillon in 21. He's been dreadful in the cups of coffee he's received at the MLB level and may end up being nothing more than a "quad A" player, but that may mean that Pittsburgh can put the 23 y/o player in a package to go do something else at this year's deadline.
Ji Man Choi - 32 y/o - Traded by TBR for Jack Hartman (minor leaguer) in 2022 - Choi has been injured to start this season and probably more would be fitting under a "DH" role than where I have him in this listing, but he's much like Carlos Santana in the patience, walks, homers and great OBP that we will see out of him when he returns.
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