It's The Bigs Blog #14 - Way Too Early 2024 1B Rankings

 Has it been a year already?  I'm writing this during the 5th game of the World Series between the Diamondbacks and the Rangers.  Eovaldi is facing Gallen, whom are very interesting names to think about for 2024.  That said, I'll have a write-up on the season at some point this off-season, but for now the one thing I keep getting requests for is the 2024 rankings.  Let's start off with my way-too-early 1B rankings tonight to satiate some appetites and see how many more I can get done over the weeks to come.   

Just Missed:  Spencer Torkelson, Vinny Pasquantino, Josh Naylor, Nathaniel Lowe, Spencer Steer, Jose Abreu.

15.  Triston Casas - Boston Red Sox - 429AB, 66R, 21 2B, 24HR, 65RBI, 70BB, 126K
              .263/.367/.857

There's a lot to like with the Boston Red Sox first baseman of the future.  Entering his age-24 season in 2024, this kid put up some very nice numbers in his first full season.  With a hard hit % on line with Bryce Harper and better than Christian Walker... his numbers of the future may fall somewhere between those two guys who we'll feature later on this list.  Gotta like Boston to go get an outfield bat this season, perhaps a landing spot for the Padres' Juan Soto.  I could see his stock rise quite a bit in the months to come if the front office of the Red Sox put some more pieces around him.

14.  Ryan Mountcastle - Baltimore Orioles - 459AB, 63R, 20 2B, 18HR, 67RBI, 36BB, 106K
            .269/.327/.780

Mountcastle had an injury plagued 2023 season, only appearing in 111 games for Baltimore this year but still putting up some solid numbers in that time.  Baltimore won over 100 games as a team this year and there's no reason that this man won't be in the middle of an ever-evolving offense.  

13.  Alec Bohm - Philadelphia Phillies - 558AB, 74R, 31 2B, 20HR, 97RBI, 42BB, 94K                                         .274/.327/.764

Entering his age-27 season and in a lineup that includes guys like Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos, this guy has been batting 4th in the post-season and if that's where Rob Thompson plans on dropping his name everyday in 2024, this guy could find his way into the top 10.  I could see an improvement on the homer total with enough protection in that lineup, as well as an increase on the runs total.  The real prize here is that he struck out fewer than 100 times in over 550 AB's.   Plate discipline is better than most as his position, but I need to see an uptick in the power department or a real commitment to hitting him cleanup to slide up the rankings.

12.  Anthony Santander - Baltimore Orioles - 591AB, 81R, 41 2B, 28HR, 95RBI, 55BB, 152K
                .257/.325/.797

Remember when I said that Ryan Mountcastle had an injury-plagued season?  Anthony Santander started 7 games and appeared at 12 games at 1B so I'm counting him in this countdown until the Baltimore Orioles (and moreso Yahoo) show me that he's not going to have eligibility at the position.  Santander was second at the position in doubles (Freeman had 59) and coming as a switch-hitter has its benefits as the Orioles are unlikely to bench him for any other bat.   If he has the 1B eligibility, his ability to be flexible in your fantasy lineup could prove to be a real asset.

11.  Isaac Paredes - Tampa Bay Rays - 492AB, 71R, 24 2B, 31HR, 98RBI, 58BB, 104K
                .250/.352/.840

Just missing out on the top 10 is a surprise entrant who spent most of his days at third base but was able to garner  10 starts at first base.  The 31 homers were top 5 at the position.  The only fear I have here is that this guy is a strong pull-side candidate who may have a harder time next year than he had this year.  His .226 XBA sits in the lower 10% of the league at the position and could prove to be a precursor to a lesser season in 2024.  Add in the lessening of that Rays lineup with the subtraction of all-world talent Wander Franco, along with the lack of pitching for that team, and he could be a piece that returns a disappointing return in 2024.

10.  Luis Arraez - Miami Marlins - 574AB, 71R, 30 2B, 10HR, 69RBI, 35BB, 34K
                .354/.393/.862

Arraez won the batting title this past season for the second year in a row and first time in the National League.  He's of the rare company of winning a batting title in each league, having done it in back to back seasons.  The problem with Arraez isn't anything he can control.  Playing him at 1B gives you a terrible disadvantage in the power department and he is much more suited to be playing at his natural 2B position.  He blew away the league in fewest K's but also doesn't walk very often leaving his OBP to be carried by his batting average.  He flirted with .400 in the first half but couldn't keep up the legendary pace over the full season.

9.  Christian Walker - Arizona D-Backs -  582AB, 86R, 36 2B, 33HR, 103RBI, 11SB, 62BB, 127K
                .258/.333/.830

Walker showed he's every bit the first baseman the Diamondbacks needed when they pushed off former MVP Paul Goldschmidt a few years ago.  This season, he actually out-performed Goldschmidt in a number of key statistics.  He had more doubles, homers, and RBI than the aforementioned Goldschmidt and was able to get 11 steals, good for matching the Cardinals first sacker.  Plate discipline numbers show his at league average, perhaps slightly better as do his statcast numbers.  Safe choice for 1B for years to come at a discounted price than some of the other huge names here.

8.  Cody Bellinger - FREE AGENT - 499 AB, 95R, 29 2B, 26HR, 97RBI, 20SB, 40BB, 87K
                .307/.356/.881

Bellinger had over 40 starts at 1B for the Cubs so he'll absolutely have the eligibility for fantasy in 2024 no matter where he signs.  I actually see it quite hard for him to rise up the standings given the names ahead of him and his questionable past, but I think he's very respectable here in the top 10 and could fall behind Walker if he signs in a less-than-advantageous destination.  Bellinger will get to select that destination this off-season and if it ends up being somewhere with a very short right-field porch (see: Yankee Stadium) he could definitely push to make the top 7.  Problem is that he's got quite a hill to climb.

7.  Paul Goldschmidt - St. Louis Cardinals - 593AB, 89R, 31 2B, 25HR, 80RBI, 11SB, 87BB, 161K
                .268/.363/.810

Good luck getting ahead of this incredible gate-keeper to the top of the standings.  Former MVP, absolute stud at the position and I somehow have to rank him 7th this year after a "down" season.  The Cardinals had a disappointing year and obviously Goldschmidt's numbers followed with that.  Fewer than 100 RBI and runs is a very large surprise considering his MVP season in 22 was 106/115.  Something of a bounce-back of near 30 HR, 100 RBI, 100 R should be a foregone conclusion.

6.  Yandy Diaz - Tampa Bay Rays - 525AB, 95R, 35 2B, 22HR, 78RBI, 65BB, 94K
               .330/.410/.932

My statements from last year's blog about Diaz:  "this might be the steal of the position."  Does a batting title count as a steal?  I personally took him in the 10th round of our 16 team league and he was every bit the value I thought I'd be getting.  He's sure to go much higher this season in the same league and I may have to pay up to get him again in the 3rd or 4th round.  The power took a drastic step forward this season with 20+ homers, something I swore to anyone who would listen would happen.  Unfortunately, I don't think the Rays will be as good next season without the pitching staff members of McClanahan, Springs and Rasmussen, as well as the questionable future of star SS Wander Franco.

5.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr -  Toronto Blue Jays - 602AB, 78R, 30 2B, 26HR, 94RBI, 67BB, 100K
                .264/.345/.789

Said of Guerrero last year:  "If you were paying the first overall pick for Vlad coming off his monster 2021 season, I think you'll admit you were disappointed by that stat line."  So, what about this one?  He took another small step back from 22 to 23 in almost every statistical category.  He walked a bit more and therefore had a marginally better OBP than 22, but this appears to be the norm for Vlad now.   If that's the case, then this is a fair ranking given who's ahead of him and unless the Blue Jays make a splash in free agency, the lineup appears to be rather similar going into 2024. 

4.  Pete Alonso - New York Mets - 568AB, 92R, 21 2B, 46HR, 118RBI, 65BB, 151K
                .217/.318/.822

That batting average stands out as a complete outlier and I feel like he's due to have a nice bounce back in 2024 in that category.  Otherwise, the statistics speak for themselves.  If Pete isn't the safest major league player for 40HR and 100RBI, I'm not sure who it's going to be.   He's now played 152 games or more each of the last 3 seasons, including a trip to the IL in 2023 after being hit by a pitch.  He still slammed 40+ homers.  I don't think he can get much higher than this, but he certainly can fall if other teams do things the Mets don't in free agency.

3.  Bryce Harper - Philadelphia Phillies - 457AB, 84R, 29 2B, 21HR, 72RBI, 11SB, 80BB, 119K
                .293/.401/.900

It feels like Rhys Hoskins has taken his last reps at first base for the Phillies and will be wandering off into free agency to find his next home.  This is the new first baseman for the Phillies and it makes all the sense in the world to keep him healthy over the length of this contract.  Coming off TJ surgery in the off-season, Bryce was supposed to be out until the All-Star Break.  He returned in April and put up a really respectable line here that should land him in the top 2 rounds of most drafts come March.  With another deep run into October behind them, the Phillies should be in the market for another hitter this year and that will only make the dangerous Phils lineup that much more potent.

2.  Matt Olson - Atlanta Braves - 608AB, 127R, 27 2B, 54HR, 139RBI, 104BB, 167K
                .283/.389/.993

Said from one year ago:  "I hope you all sleep on him next season because I'm targeting him for an enormous second season in Atlanta."  I then went onto explain how we would see an uptick in batting average which would be mashing the ball because of his exit velocity numbers.  I'll take my victory lap on that for sure, but I didn't think we'd see Olson get to .283.  Coming off a .240 season in 22, I figured we'd see a jump back into the .260s.  No way, he outproduced my expectations and absolutely lived to crush the ball this season.  Playing every single game of each of the last 2 seasons makes him also a durable and safe option for years to come.

1.  Freddie Freeman - Los Angeles Dodgers - 637AB, 131R, 59 2B, 29HR, 102RBI, 23SB, 72BB, 121K
                .331/.410/.977

Last season he had Betts and Turner hitting in front of him and put up a very nice season but somehow, without Turner, he was even better.  The Dodgers had an interesting veteran-laden lineup this season including JD Martinez, Max Muncy, Jason Heyward and David Peralta.  Three of those guys are gone via free agency and it'll be up to names like James Outman, Gavin Lux and others to pick up the slack.  Chances are, we see the Dodgers make a splash in free agency and pick up a bat to add to Freddie and Mookie. But even without an addition, this lineup will be one of the best in baseball.

That's it!  The official 2023 season is over and congratulations to the Texas Rangers on winning the World Series!  I'll be putting up a few more of these this off-season as we prepare for 2024.