It's The Bigs Blog #15 - Way Too Early 2024 2B Rankings

Welcome back everyone for the second base edition of The Bigs Blog.  Let's not waste any time here and get right into the rankings.

Just Missed:  Jorge Polanco, Matt McLain, Brandon Lowe, Zach Gelof,

15.  Jeff McNeil - New York Mets
.270/.333/.711
585AB, 75R, 25 2B, 10HR, 55RBI, 10SB, 39BB, 65K

I wonder if Jeff McNeil is on the Mets opening day lineup in 2024.  I wonder where in that lineup he'd hit given the incredible swath of young talent coming up and  I also question where he'll be playing in 2024 positionally as a loud rookie named Ronny Mauricio is going to push him for playing time at the keystone.  That could push him off into the outfield which would garner him multi-position eligibility again but the real question is what the Mets do to improve the lineup and whether Jeff McNeil fits into that future.  One year removed from winning a batting crown, this season was a bit of a disappointment but he is far from a bum.  10% strikeout rate is stellar and second only to someone much higher up the list.

14.  Jonathan India - Cincinnati Reds
.244/.338/.745. 
454AB, 78R, 23 2B, 17HR, 61RBI, 14SB, 52BB, 109K

The 2021 Rookie of the Year hasn't played more than 119 games either season since his accolade and his incredible 21HR, 12SB output that season.  In 2023, he was able to outproduce his steals total in 31 fewer games, but the rest remains the high point of his career.  Given that the Reds are pushing toward a playoff birth in 2024 and phasing in a whole new crop of young players, I see India taking over a leadership role with this team in the absence of Joey Votto.  We could see a full season of 20-20 type numbers, but until I see another full season and the lineup around him improve, I can't possibly get him higher than this.

13.  Christopher Morel - Chicago Cubs
.247/.313/.821
388AB, 62R, 17 2B, 26HR, 70RBI, 6SB, 36BB, 133K

16 starts at the keystone position in 2023 guarantees him second base eligibility in 2024.  At the start of the season, he should also have CF and RF eligibility if your league plays individual positions as ours does.  The K rate is frighteningly high at 31% but the statcast numbers jump off the page at me as quite possibly a sleeping giant.  50% Hard Hit Rate was higher than any 2B in the league.  15.9% Barrel Rate was higher than any 2B and his Average Exit Velocity of 92.1 was second only at the position to the #1 guy.   It is obvious that Morel is going to have an everyday job in 2024 with the removal of Cody Bellinger from the lineup, but I think this will be the last season we see him eligible here at 2B.

12.  Ha-Seong Kim - San Diego Padres
.260/.351/.749
538AB, 84R, 23 2B, 147HR, 60RBI, 38SB, 75BB, 124K

What a disappointment the 2023 San Diego Padres were but it was not because of this guy under-performing.  Quite the opposite, actually.  38SB was good for second at this position and his 75BB were good for second as well.  Sadly, though, his OBP doesn't carry as much weight as it would for someone hitting a bit better than .260.  He's imporved each of his first three years in the majors and there's no reason to believe we won't see him in a very advantageous lineup spot in 2024 around hitters like Machado, Tatis and Bogaerts.  He'll also have the luxury of being triple eligible as he had enough starts at SS and 3B to qualify for those positions in 2024.  This could be another bright spot among the weeds in the middle to late rounds.

11.  Spencer Steer - Cincinnati Reds
.271/.356/.820
582AB, 74R, 37 2B, 23HR, 86RBI, 15SB, 68BB, 139K

Who?  This 25 year old rookie burst onto the scene in 2023 for the assumed "bad" Cincinnati Reds and had an all-world season seen above.  The ballpark he plays his home games in, Great American Ballpark, plays like a tiny bandbox yet he was capable of hitting 13 of his 23 HR away from Cincinnati.  Could a 30 HR season be on the horizon for this guy?  I'm not entirely sold on it, especially given his statcast numbers look incredibly pedestrian against others in this area.  I'm not sure where his position long-term with this team is and that gives me pause on drafting him until that becomes more clear.  Going into the season, he'll have 2B, 1B, 3B, and LF eligibility after a very versatile year.  I don't think he'll be long for 2B eligibility either as India locks down that position for his team.

10.  Isaac Paredes - Tampa Bay Rays
.250/.352/.840
492AB, 71R, 24 2B, 31HR, 98RBI, 58BB, 104K

From my most recent blog entry at 1B:  "The 31 homers were top 5 at the position.  The only fear I have here is that this guy is a strong pull-side candidate who may have a harder time next year than he had this year.  His .226 XBA sits in the lower 10% of the league at the position and could prove to be a precursor to a lesser season in 2024.  Add in the lessening of that Rays lineup with the subtraction of all-world talent Wander Franco, along with the lack of pitching for that team, and he could be a piece that returns a disappointing return in 2024."

9.  Bryson Stott - Philadelphia Phillies
.280/.329/.748
585AB, 78R, 32 2B, 15HR, 62RBI, 31SB, 39BB, 100K

31 steals in this lineup too?  Man he's going to be a sexy pick on draft day this season as the Phillies lineup protects him in a number of ways.  Hitting him toward the bottom of the lineup means we'll see more opportunity to set the table for the big guns at the top or, more likely, clean up whatever is left from their path through the heart of the order.  His position in the lineup is most important to his success in 2024 as if the Phillies somehow can squeeze him in near the top of the lineup, his value skyrockets.  Until then, this is the safe landing spot at 9.

8.  Gleyber Torres - New York Yankees
.273/.347/.800
596AB, 90R, 28 2B, 25HR, 68RBI, 13SB, 67BB, 98K

Another guy with an under 15% K rate that is going to be in a prime position in his lineup in 2024.  Other than Aaron Judge, one could (and probably should) make the argument that Gleyber was the second best hitter on the Yankees in 2023.  He's taken over what would've been DJ LeMahieu's spot in these rankings only a couple years prior, where we now see DJL off the list.  Chipping in double-digit steals with 20+ homer potential is a skill set I'm all too interested in getting in my lineup on draft day.  That said, I'm not sure where he's going to go and whether the Yankees are going to upgrade the lineup from 2023.  If they do, he could soar even higher.

7.  Nico Hoerner - Chicago Cubs
.283/.346/.843
619AB, 98R, 27 2B, 9HR, 68RBI, 43SB, 49BB, 86K

86 strikeouts in over 600 trips to the plate.  That's good for a 12.1% K rate which, paired with the 43 steals and 98 runs scored makes him a potent top-of-the-lineup hitter apt to getting on base and creating havoc.  As with Morel, I'm interested to see what the lineup looks like coming into the 2024 season before fully committing to Hoerner on my team, but given Swanson, Suzuki, Happ and Morel are all going to be there, I could see Hoerner hitting atop this lineup and that would give him incredible opportunity to swipe all the bags he wants.

6.  Ketel Marte - Arizona Diamondbacks
.276/.358/.843
569AB, 94R, 26 2B, 25HR, 82RBI, 8SB, 71BB, 109K

Another guy with incredible plate discipline and as he enters his age-30 season, he may be finding his stroke.  Is he ever going to be the 32 homer guy we saw in 2019?  No.  But this seems much more like what we'll see over the next couple years from him.  20+ homers, 80+ RBI, 90+ runs scored and a nice BB:K ratio.  The DBacks just went to the World Series and will be in line to add to their young core this off-season.  Question is where will they be looking to fill?  Evan Longoria is gone from 3B, Tommy Pham and Lourdes Gurriel are gone from the outfield.  If the DBacks have plans of repeating their trip to the playoffs, they'll need to retool for the future.  Marte has 4 more years on his deal with them, so he'll be an anchor for years to come.

5.  Luis Arraez - Miami Marlins
.354/.393/.862
574AB, 71R, 30 2B, 10HR, 69RBI, 35BB, 34K

THIS is where Arraez succeeds more than at first base.  First base is a group of sluggers all capable of hitting 25-30 home runs.  If you look back at the list of guys I just named off, Paredes, Torres and Marte all have 20+ homer power but when we're splitting hairs between those guys and guys like Stott, Hoerner and Kim... Arraez is the cream of that crop.  Unbelievable 5.5% K rate with a .362 BABIP making his .354 batting average look.... somehow weak and to be improved upon.  This is absolutely his ceiling at the position, however, as I don't see him getting above any of the other four guys on this list even with back-to-back batting championships under his belt.  The four above are simply too good.

4.  Jose Altuve - Houston Astros
.311/.393/.915
360AB, 76R, 21 2B, 17HR, 51RBI, 14SB, 44BB, 71K

Of the top five players at the position, his K rate is the highest of the group at 17.2%, far below league average.  If not for a wild Daniel Bard pitching during the World Baseball Classic that fractured his thumb and left him sidelined until May, we may see a much more robust stat line.  Because of that, I have to put him at 4 for now but I firmly reserve the right to rearrange these top four players based on team changes and spring numbers.  Altuve is as good as it gets at this position and given there are 4 guys you can truly rely on at this position, I'll take whatever one is going last in drafts.

3.  Ozzie Albies - Atlanta Braves
.280/.336/.849
596AB, 96R, 30 2B, 33HR, 109RBI, 13SB, 46BB, 107K

What a whale of a bounce-back after the injury plagued 2022 left him as a large question mark coming into the season.  Consider those questions put to rest here as he's in the most potent lineup in MLB hitting firmly between Ronald Acuna and Matt Olson.  That's arguably the best position to be hitting in all of baseball right now and he put up a monster season to reflect that.  He set career highs in homers and RBI this past season and chipped in a perfect amount of steals to be right with all the other members at the top of these rankings.  Ozzie is as safe as it gets so long as his health remains.  I think we can all chalk 2022 up to a lost season and see that these numbers are the real deal for him.  Draft with confidence.

2.  Marcus Semien - Texas Rangers
.276/.348/.826
670AB, 122R, 40 2B, 29HR, 100RBI, 14SB, 72BB, 110K

Once again, Marcus Semien played all 162 games for his team this season for the fourth season in a row (not counting 2020).  In that time he has no less than 26HR, no less than 83RBI, and no less than 10SB.  If those are the floors of each of those statistics, I'm drafting this guy in the second round next season and it won't be with any hesitation.  Being able to plug in this guy at either 2B or SS (yes, again dual eligible for 2024) every single day is a luxury unlike anything else.  They say the best ability is availability and this guy is the modern day Ironman.  Given the world champion Texas Rangers were on his back during October and his fat contract means he's going nowhere soon, this lineup in Texas may be very potent for years to come with Semien atop it.

1.  Mookie Betts - Los Angeles Dodgers
.307/.408/.987
584AB, 126R, 40 2B, 39HR, 107RBI, 14SB, 96BB, 107K

What can even be said about Markus Lynn Betts that hasn't been said a hundred times before?  He'll garner some MVP votes this season from the writers given his monster year outlined above and he's going to go absolutely nowhere from the top of the sick Dodgers lineup.  Freddie Freeman behind him in the lineup means the Dodgers have the #1 overall players at 1B and 2B to start this off-season.  While it's unlikely they'll have another for the rest of the season, the Dodgers are prepared to make a big splash in free agency this off-season and perhaps add a big bat to the middle of that lineup.  Teoscar Hernandez or former friend Cody Bellinger seem like nice pieces to look at... and even JD Martinez is gone as the DH so the world is the Dodgers oyster as far as what they want their lineup to look like in 2024.  Either way, we know Betts will hit atop this lineup and be a monster for years to come.