It's The Bigs Blog #16 - Way Too Early 2024 3B Rankings

 As we time travel backward for the end of daylight saving time, it's time to talk about the hot corner and the upcoming 2024 MLB season.  Last year on our podcast, I equated this position to an erupting volcano with only a few safe havens to land on.  But as the season concludes, there were more than 15 quality third baseman to plug into your lineup everyday.  Without any further ado, let's dive in.

Honorable Mentions:  Jeimer Candelario, Wilmer Flores, Eugenio Suarez, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Anthony Rendon.

15.  Matt Chapman - FREE AGENT
.240/.330/.754
509AB, 66R, 39 2B, 17HR, 54RBI, 62BB, 165K

Chapman was extremely hot out of the gate this season, hitting .384 with 5HR and 21RBI in April.  The final two months of the season, August and September, saw him hit under the Mendoza Line and only muscle 3 HR in the entire 8 weeks.  To say that he was a sell high candidate early in the season is an understatement as his second half numbers paled in comparison.  After the scorching April, he never hit better than .247 for any single month after.  Even so, he put in a decent enough season and is in the great position of being far and away the best option at his position in free agency this year.  He should get quite a nice contract from someone and, until that happens, I can't put him anywhere but right here.

14.  Ha-Seong Kim - San Diego Padres
.260/.351/.749
538AB, 84R, 23 2B, 17HR, 60RBI, 38SB, 75BB, 124K

As said last time in the 2B episode, there are a lot of reasons to like Kim going into 2024.  He may end up leading off for a stacked Padres team or he could hit at the bottom of the order in front of the monsters.  Regardless, his 38SB stick out leading the position and the OBP is very respectable.  I could see him wiggling his way up toward top 10 status with some injuries or unfortunate landing locations for the free agent 3B around him in this ranking.

13.  Justin Turner - FREE AGENT
.276/.345/.800
558AB, 86R, 31 2B, 23HR, 96RBI, 51BB, 110K

Nice line from a guy who was getting slightly less playing time on the Dodgers just a year ago.  For the Red Sox in 2023, he appeared in 146 games which was third most in his career and the line shows exactly what he can do when full time playing time and his body hold up.  Nearly 100 RBI are incredibly impressive for a 38 year old.  Depending on where his mighty stick lands this off-season, he could climb the rankings the way JD Martinez did when he signed in LA just a year ago.

12.  Spencer Steer - Cincinnati Reds
.271/.356/.820
582AB, 74R, 37 2B, 23HR, 86RBI, 15SB, 68BB, 139K

The versatile Steer falls here in the top 12 at the position meaning he should be rostered in all leagues next season and should be starting on some deeper league teams.  If the 25 HR upside is real and if the 10-15SB total can be repeated, he could turn into one of the steals of the position as he was in 2023.  The Reds just allowed Joey Votto to walk into free agency so this could stand to reason that Steer will be at 1B in 2024 full time.  That guaranteed role, should it materialize, could push him slightly up these rankings by the time the season begins.

11.  Josh Jung - Texas Rangers
.266/.315/.782
478AB, 75R, 25 2B, 23HR, 70RBI, 30BB, 151K

Jung struggles with the strikeout as evidenced by his 29.1 K rate.  It's the only thing standing between him and a top 10 ranking this season because in just 122 games, he hit the exact same number of homers as the two previous guys before him.  Playing on the World Series winning Texas Rangers has its benefits if his bat is going to climb the lineup in 2024.  I'd love to see him hitting somewhere in the top 5 as he was in the final two games of the World Series, but I'll wait to see what Chris Young and the Rangers do to improve and defend their title.

10.  Alec Bohm - Philadelphia Phillies
.274/.327/.764
558AB, 74R, 31 2B, 20HR, 97RBI, 42BB, 94K

As said in the first base blog, Bohm will succeed if he's placed in the center of this Phillies lineup as they did in the 2023 post-season.  If you're going to bat Bohm behind Schwarber, Turner and Harper, I'm all in for his enormous boom in 2024.  Entering his prime age 27 season, I'm very confident we'll see 100 RBI and perhaps he pushes 30 home runs.  The one thing I'm most impressed with is his 15.3 K% this past season that shows his willingness to take pitches despite ducks on the pond in front of him.  This was his maturing year where he cut down on those K's in favor of run production.  Next year, he takes a big step toward being a vital and integral part of the Phillies devastating offense.

9.  Isaac Paredes - Tampa Bay Rays
.250/.352/.840
492AB, 71R, 24 2B, 31HR, 98RBI, 58BB, 104K

Paredes's position in the lineup is safe so long as he continues to put up some really strong production numbers like seen above.  My fear with the pull-side hitter remains steadfast and I'm concerned about what the Rays will do to replenish their team after losing 3/5 of their starting rotation and their all-star shortstop last season.  By the time spring comes, the luster may be off this breakout season he put up and we could see him fall down these rankings.

8.  Max Muncy - Los Angeles Dodgers
.212/.333/.808
482AB, 95R, 17 2B, 36HR, 105RBI, 85BB, 153K

Signing another 2 year extension just hours after the World Series concluded, Muncy is entrenched as the Dodgers 3rd baseman for another couple campaigns though something interesting happened in 2023 that many may not have noticed.  Muncy hit an absolutely putrid .155 against lefties this season.  With Chris Taylor being a lefty killer and capable third baseman, I could see a platoon happening here that will cut into Muncy's ability to put up the prodigious power numbers we are accustomed to.  If he isn't walking 80+ times a season and hitting 35+ home runs, he essentially becomes a K machine with a poor batting average.  He'll age terribly, but the question you have to ask yourself is whether 2024 is the first big step back or there's more power to be had?

7.  Gunnar Henderson - Baltimore Orioles
.255/.325/.814
560 AB, 100R, 29 2B, 28HR, 82RBI, 10SB, 56BB, 159K

The presumed AL Rookie of the Year had quite the impressive showing in 2023 scoring 100 runs and coming just shy of 30 homers and 30 doubles.  Those who were patient with Henderson after the first two months were rewarded handsomely as he was able to hit 6HR in 3 of the final 4 months of the season.  His spot in the dynamic Orioles lineup is both safe and growing as whether he's a leadoff hitter or a middle-of-the-order hitter is to be determined.  I don't see him jumping into the top 6 just yet, but with another strong season in 24, he'll be hard to keep down for long.

6.  Alex Bregman - Houston Astros
.262/.363/.804
622AB, 103R, 28 2B, 25HR, 98RBI, 92BB, 87K

The man walked more than he struck out this season.  The Houston lineup is only improving as he and Altuve age, but his spot in this lineup is as rock solid as anyone on this list.  He, fortunately, stayed healthy for the second year in a row playing in all but one of Houston's contests this past year.  He's as reliable and steady as you can get at this position and going into his age-30 season, we should see more production similar to the above line for years to come. 

5.  Rafael Devers - Boston Red Sox
.271/.351/.851
580AB, 90R, 34 2B, 33HR, 100RBI, 62BB, 126K

This entry and the next two are like splitting an atom three different ways.  Dependent upon what skillset you like most, or what team you think will succeed most, is how you can break down these three entries but for me, Devers sits at 5.  The team has the opportunity to build upon a terrible 2023 season, but I just don't see the future being bright in Beantown for the next couple years until they get some more seasoning on some young guys.  Guys like Jarren Duran and Triston Casas are going to carry large loads next year if the Red Sox don't bring in a bat to replace the free agent mentioned earlier, Justin Turner.  For those reasons, I reserve the right to rearrange these three before spring.  

4.  Nolan Arenado - St. Louis Cardinals
.266/.315/.774
560AB, 71R, 26 2B, 26HR, 93RBI, 41BB, 101K

The Cardinals were an unmitigated disaster in 2023 and Arenado was a smaller portion of it.  He failed to eclipse 30HR and 100RBI for the first time since 2014.  He hit well under his career average of .286 and posted the lowest OPS of his career since his rookie season (2020 not withstanding).  The Cardinals, like the Red Sox, will need to improve their team for next season but most of their problems rely on the pitching side of the ball.  For the offense, the Cards boast a plethora of young talent surrounding three big established stars in Arenado, Goldschmidt and Willson Contreras.  The Cardinals organization, as well, are known for being top notch at bouncing back from adversity and I see no reason why 2024 won't be a return to prominence for the proud Cards.

3.  Manny Machado - San Diego Padres
.258/.319/781
543AB, 75R, 21 2B, 30HR, 91RBI, 50BB, 109K

Machado only got into 138 games this season spending some time on the IL.  His team also grossly underperformed and his numbers for 2023 suffered as a result.  With rumors of Juan Soto's departure via trade, I see the offense obviously taking a step back in production in 2024 but that could mean that Machado is tasked with more of that load.  The batting average and on-base dip for 2023 should return next season and I'd love to see him running more in 2024 than the small 3SB output this year.  

2.  Austin Riley - Atlanta Braves
.281/.345/.861
636AB, 117R, 32 2B, 37HR, 97RBI, 59BB, 172K

His strikeout problem still exists though he has been able to maintain it right around league average for the last couple of seasons.  This was a huge season for Riley that will only get bigger in 2024 as we see Atlanta maintain the majority of their lineup.  The only thing standing between him and the top spot is a ton of stolen bases for the #1 guy and since we won't see Riley running anywhere near the amount he'd need to take over the #1 spot, Braves fans should be happy to see Riley here.  

1.  Jose Ramirez - Cleveland Guardians
.282/.356/.831
611AB, 87R, 36 2B, 24HR, 80RBI, 28SB, 73BB, 73K

The only person to steal more bases at the position than Jose Ramirez this year was Ha-Seong Kim which speaks to how few third baseman you'll find that can contribute in that category.  Given his propensity for MVP caliber seasons in the past, we could see a return to form in more of the counting stats than 2023 provided.  These numbers are not bad by any means, but given his 2023 season of 126RBI, managers may have been disappointed if they took my advice of making Ramirez 1.1 in your draft.  Still, I don't think you'll ever be disappointed drafting Ramirez and if a discount comes in 2024, I'll be happy to reap the benefits.  

What do you think?  Did I misrank someone here?  How would you stack up the 3, 4 and 5th ranked guys on this list?