It's The Bigs Blog #17 - Way Too Early 2024 Shortstop Rankings

 For the 2024 season, shortstop may be the deepest position of them all.  There are more than 15 guys I'd consider starters and upwards of 25 I consider very rosterable players.  The honorable mentions will be longer in this than any other list as I just can't leave this many good names outside the top 15.  Without any ado, here we go.

Honorable Mentions:  Oneil Cruz, Jeremy Pena, Carlos Correa, Ezequiel Tovar, Anthony Volpe, Tim Anderson, Matt McLain, Willy Adames

15.  JP Crawford - Seattle Mariners
.266/.380/.818
534AB, 94R, 35 2B, 19HR, 65RBI, 94BB, 125K

I'm starting this off with a name not many will be too familiar with outside of The Bigs since Crawford was the championship shortstop for Ben's 2021 team.  But this past season shows Crawford is definitely worth a starting job on teams come 2024.  The .380 OBP was third best at this position beaten only by two MVP worth candidates at 1 and 2.  With Teoscar Hernandez a free agent coming out of the Mariners lineup, we could see Jerry Dipoto go out and swing a deal to bring in some more firepower.  Either way, it appears Crawford will be a staple in the lineup around Julio Rodriguez next season giving him plenty of opportunity to put up a similar line. 

14.  CJ Abrams - Washington Nationals
.245/.300/.712
563AB, 83R, 28 2B, 18HR, 64RBI, 47SB, 32BB, 118K

The K rate sits around the same number as Crawford but the stolen bases give him the edge here despite the bad OBP.  Abrams is atop a young, athletic Nationals lineup that will look to improve on a rather impressive, though underwhelming, 2023 season.  He was the key piece of the Juan Soto deal so the Nationals are going to give him all the length he needs to succeed.  If the Nats get involved in bringing some offensive firepower in from free agency, this could bump Abrams stock going into draft season.  Entering his age-23 season, the Nats young shortstop could be a deep sleeper for many in need of steals later on in drafts.

13.  Elly De La Cruz - Cincinnati Reds
.235/.300/.710
388AB, 67R, 15 2B, 13HR, 44RBI, 35SB, 35BB, 144K

The K% is worst at the position at 33.7%.  His numbers don't stand out but if you watched him during the 2023 season, you can see the immense raw talent on display day after day for the young Reds.  This is the future in Cincinnati much the same way Oneil Cruz is the future of Pittsburgh.  I think he's a lock for 40 steals this upcoming season and the question is whether he'll be able to keep the K rate down enough to be worth rostering.  If he continues to strike out at over 1/3 of the time, I doubt he'll be in the majors after Memorial Day.  But, if he takes a step forward in that department, maybe cutting it down to just over league average, we could see a monster season the likes of Ronald Acuna.  I'm saying this is the season to buy in on this kid because despite his boom-or-bust outlook, this could be the last season to get him outside the top 2 rounds.

12.  Nico Hoerner - Chicago Cubs
.283/.346/.729
619AB, 98R, 27 2B, 9HR, 68RBI, 43SB, 49BB, 86K

Beautiful K rate at 12.1% coupled with 40+ SB potential puts him just over the flashy EDLC.  He's not going to ever carry your team and I think his skillset is reliant on a good offense around him, but if this is the indication of how the Cubs will be going into 2024, I'm on board in the middle to later rounds.  Another sleeper candidate since he's dual eligible and with guys like Swanson, Happ and Suzuki still there to drive him in, 100 runs could be within reach again.  

11.  Ha-Seong Kim - San Diego Padres
.260/.351/.749
538 AB, 84R, 23 2B, 17HR, 60RBI, 38SB, 75BB, 124K

This is the third time HSK shows up on my lists having qualified at 2b and 3b already.  I don't need to tell you again about hitting atop the SD lineup or batting 9th ahead of everyone that drives in runs.  

10.  Dansby Swanson - Chicago Cubs
.244/.328/.744
565AB, 81R, 25 2B, 22HR, 80RBI, 9SB, 66BB, 154K

Swanson's first season in Chicago was a very big step back from his breakout contract season in 2022.  This season, however, isn't all that dissimilar to his 2021 campaign and given that he missed about two weeks worth of games, it's fair to assume this is probably the norm for him.  25ish homers, 80-100RBI dependent upon lineup production and a solid walk rate.  The only thing he continues to struggle with is K rate which is why he falls at 10.

9.  Xander Bogaerts - San Diego Padres
.285/.350/.790
596AB, 83R, 31 2B, 19HR, 58RBI, 19SB, 56BB, 110K

Great K rate at 16.5% pushes Bogaerts' first season in SD just ahead of Swanson.  All the reasons to like Ha-Seong Kim two slots ago apply here though if you draft XB for the 33 homers he hit in 2019, you'll be very disappointed.  Bogaerts specialty is his ability to hit for average and, because he'll be in that same lineup in SD, he'll score more runs in his second season.  He's a great buy-low candidate if you miss out on the top echelon.

8.  Gunnar Henderson - Baltimore Orioles
.255/.325/.814
560AB, 100R, 29 2B, 28HR, 82RBI, 10SB, 56BB, 159K

Spoken about more in my 3B rankings, Gunnar's in a better lineup and a better ballpark than the guys behind him.  Also, more than likely he'll be the AL Rookie of the Year giving him the spot of being the gatekeeper to what I consider the top echelon of shortstops.  

7.  Bo Bichette - Toronto Blue Jays
.306/.339/.814
571AB, 69R, 30 2B, 20HR, 73RBI, 5SB, 27BB, 115K

In 2022, I mentioned how hot his September needed to be to have his batting average hit .290.  He missed about 20 games this past season for injury as well and despite being in a good offense, he took a slight step back.  These numbers are plenty respectable but if you ask anyone who drafted him, I would think you'd expect better given his torrid start to the season.  He's a safe option and pairing him with either Springer or Vlad Guerrero would be a very smart idea in the early rounds.   His .306 BA was helped out by his .355 BABIP which tells me that he was incredibly lucky.  Maybe we don't see him repeat the .300 BA next season, but I think he'll get those power numbers and counting stats a bit higher.

6.  Marcus Semien - Texas Rangers
.276/.348/.826
670AB, 122R, 40 2B, 29HR, 100RBI, 14SB, 72BB, 110K

Semien I spoke about in my second base rankings but there's no reason you shouldn't be confident drafting him in March coming off the World Series Championship run his team went on.  He plays everyday and his versatility is what cuts the hair here with Bichette.

5.  Bobby Witt Jr - Kansas City Royals
.276/.319/.814
641AB, 97R, 28 2B, 30HR, 96RBI, 49SB, 40BB, 121K

Cutting down his strikeout rate from 2022 was the biggest question mark we had coming into the season.  I would've liked to see him continue to up his walk total and maybe that will come in time.  He is only entering his age 24 season.  The hype train on this guy is fully boarded and left the station if you drafted him in 2023.  What an amazing 30/30 season that his talent certainly says could be repeatable for years to come.  The Royals are bad, have been bad for a few years, but this is the bright spot of the future.  If only they could find some guys to pitch...

4.  Francisco Lindor - New York Mets
.254/.336/.806
602AB, 108R, 33 2B, 31HR, 98RBI, 31SB, 66BB, 137K

The Mets best player this season was, in fact, Francisco Lindor.  The Mets had a horrible season but Lindor gave us a 30/30 season as well.  The fact that his lineup is better than Witt alongside his track record of multiple tremendous seasons puts him above Witt for now.  However, I do think that he is a "B+" guy in almost every counting statistic whereas the top three guys all do something better than he does.  He's an incredibly safe option at SS going into 2024, but I like these next three guys a bit more.

3.  Trea Turner - Philadelphia Phillies
.266/.320/.779
693AB, 102R, 35 2B, 26HR, 76RBI, 30SB, 45BB, 150K

This is what is considered a "very bad" season for Trea Turner in his first season in Philadelphia.  I'm buying so much in the bounce-back that I'd be willing to take him in the top of the second round or in the late first if both the options above are taken.  In that lineup with Schwarber, Harper, Castellanos and Bohm, I see an easy 100 runs scored and a much higher batting average.  The Phillies are all behind this guy to succeed giving him the fat contract.  Turner came to life this season after the All Star Break having a torrid August and September pushing the Phillies into the playoffs.  Now that his first season is over, give me shares of him for 2024.

2.  Corey Seager - Texas Rangers
.327/.390/1.013
477AB, 88R, 42 2B, 33HR, 96RBI, 49BB, 88K

The 2-time World Series champion and World Series MVP sits at number 2 for me this season.  He strikes out less frequently than the previous three entrants and has the ability to hit 30 homers in any season.  The problem is that Seager always seems to find himself riding the IL for at least once a year.  This past season, he missed about 40 games with a hamstring injury.  Even missing all that time, he was able to put up the 2nd most HR at this position.  If he could put together a season of 150 games, we could see a 40HR, .300 average, 100/100 runs/rbi.  

1.  Mookie Betts - Los Angeles Dodgers
.307/.408/.987
584AB, 126R, 40 2B, 39HR, 107RBI, 14SB, 96BB, 107K

I talked about Betts in my 2B rankings where he was the #1 overall player at that position.  He's the #1 overall player here as well giving the Dodgers the #1 player at 1st, 2nd and SS.  The Dodgers also have a bunch of money coming off their books and they'll be in the market to improve the team.  Betts will probably wind up as the runner-up for the NL MVP, but in 2024 he'll be drafted in the top 5 players in most drafts.  

That's the shortstops!  Next up will be outfield tiers and starting pitcher tiers to finish off November's way-too-early-rankings.  Thanks for stopping by.