It's The Bigs Blog #18 - Way Too Early 2024 Outfield Tiers

 To try and split hairs between outfielders this early in the game would be a nightmare and take me far too long.  So instead, I'm keeping these guys in tiers all clumped together by where I think they're going to be drafted.  So, let's take a look at these tiers and see what we're looking at for outfield in 2024.

Tier 1 - First Round Anchors
            Ronald Acuna, Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto.

I'm sure there will be more than just four outfielders taken in the first round of many drafts in 2024 but for now, these are the four guys I can pencil in without question being the cream of the crop.  Acuna comes off one of the best statistical seasons we've ever seen with a .300+ BA, 40+HR and 70+ stolen bases.  He should come off the board in the top 2 picks of every draft unless there's some sort of weird scoring anomaly.  Betts, Judge and Soto are my next three in this tier.  Judge, when healthy, is the best power hitter in the game and should be drafted for 40 homers despite his obvious injury risk.  Betts may be the best fantasy player in the game with his triple eligibility and consistent play season over season without injury.  Juan Soto is the only one some may question, but his walk totals and ability to get on base are above EVERYONE else by a large margin.   Drafting one of these four sets the tone for your season next year and you can build around the strengths and weaknesses of each of them.

Tier 2 - 1st/2nd round outfield anchors.
            Kyle Tucker, Fernando Tatis Jr, Julio Rodriguez, Corbin Carroll, Yordan Alvarez, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout.

This might be where some conversation about how I split these tiers up may come to pass.  Mike Trout has played in 290 games since the end of the 2019 season.  He is the biggest boom or bust pick you can have this early in the draft and there may be some players out there who still see him as a shiny first round toy.  I won't be making that mistake as I did in 2021.  Tucker missed a 30/30 season by one homer and if the Houston Astros actually hit him above 6th in their lineup, he could be a first round talent by season's end.  Tatis had a perfectly acceptable 141 games for the Padres but his K numbers are just a bit higher than I would like to see.  Pairing him and one of the top four would be insane.  Julio is about as close as it gets to making the top tier.  2023's 30/30, 100/100 season paired with his 25/25 Rookie of the Year season in 2022 would probably put up atop this group.  I'm just not ready to pull the trigger on him as a top tier guy just yet.  Corbin Carroll needs to show me another season.  Bryce and Yordan don't steal bases as frequently as those in the top tier so they take the slightest little bump back but are definitely in the running for a late-first round pick.

Tier 3 - Last Chance to Anchor Your Outfield.
            Luis Robert, Adolis Garcia, Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, George Springer.

This group is thrown together with a bunch of guys with obvious question marks or holes in their game that limit them from being in the top two tiers.  That isn't to say these guys aren't productive, far from it.  For starters, Schwarber has the most homers in this group but also struck out the most.  Garcia drove in the most runs but also had the lowest BA other than Schwarber.  Bellinger, Robert and Springer all stole exactly 20 bases with Robert leading the way with 38HR to go with them.  One more season like that and we may see him jump up to another tier but the White Sox have been awful with and without him.  Castellanos and Yelich gave us very nice bounce-back seasons that I want to see repeated.  

Tier 4 - Very Good #2 Outfielders
            Randy Arozarena, Lane Thomas, Anthony Santander, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Harris II, Ian Happ, Cedric Mullins, Teoscar Hernandez, Steven Kwan, Bryan Reynolds

If you've anchored your outfield with at least one guy from the first three tiers, then this is where you deepen your team and get yourself a great backup in case of catastrophe.  Arozarena may be the flashiest name on the board but his .254 average is simply league average.  Only 19 2B on the season is least among these guys and his 23 HR is simply in the middle.  Lane Thomas had a 20/20 season with 28HR and 101 runs scored.  He strikes out a ton, doesn't walk much but will get plenty of playing time in Washington.  Santander had 41 doubles in 2023 in the middle of the powerhouse Orioles lineup.   Nimmo had the highest OPS of this group thanks to a .363 OBP.  Harris had a dismal April and May (.200 and .167 BA each month) before exploding the final four months.  A full 6 months of play at that level could see his stock skyrocket.  Ian Happ had 99 walks.  Cedric Mullins probably is never going to see the 30/30 season from a few years ago, but he's still a very serviceable player for the Orioles despite missing time this year.  Kwan is a batting average specialist with minimal power but a great eye.  Teoscar Hernandez strikes out a TON and I would put him last of this group but he's still worthy of being here.  Bryan Reynolds does everything at a B to B+ level but does nothing exceptionally well.  

Tier 5 - The Cliff is Coming.
            Marcell Ozuna, Byron Buxton, Josh Lowe, Seiya Suzuki, Jeff McNeil, Eloy Jimenez, Jorge Soler

Small mini-tier here between the larger tier 4 and the monster that will be Tier 6.  Ozuna went 40/100 this past season and the Braves are not going anywhere.  He could be good for another ridiculous season like that or he could simply be the shell of himself we've seen in other seasons.  I'm not trusting that guy nor am I trusting Byron Buxton to stay healthy.  Jeff McNeil is only one year removed from a batting title and deserves at least the respect of being in this tier with this group because of it.  Eloy can't stay healthy, Josh Lowe is unproven on a team that has no respect for playing time and Jorge Soler doesn't have a team right now so it's hard to put him anywhere but here until we see where he lands.  That leaves Seiya Suzuki who is also a B to B+ player in most categories going 75R, 74RBI and 20HR this past season.  I don't see why those numbers can't be repeated.

Tier 6 - This is the cliff.
            Alex Verdugo, Lars Nootbaar, Whit Merrifield, Starling Marte, TJ Friedl, Christopher Morel, Austin Hays, Evan Carter, Lourdes Gurriel, Tommy Pham, Kris Bryant, Brendan Donovan, Jason Heyward.

I'm not going to give you a sentence each on these guys.  There's probably one diamond among the group that will return very nice value but each comes with limitations and question marks in more than one facet of the game.  Some are unproven rookies or second year guys, some are veterans off a bad season and others are simply ... average players.  These guys can fill a roster but I'd hate to be dumpster diving for this group to start all three of your outfield spots.

Tier 7 - Yuck
            Daulton Varsho, Randal Grichuk, Charlie Blackmon, Tyler O'Neill, Giancarlo Stanton, Jarred Kelenic

There will be more into this tier as time passes but for right now, these guys I'm probably not touching.  Varsho looked lost at the plate for much of the 24 season and I think we expected more than the 16SB he put up.  Grichuk is gone from Colorado and until he signs somewhere else, I'm not going to put any stock into him.  Blackmon is still IN Colorado and aside from being empty batting average and a bit of OBP, he's nothing to write home about anymore and I'm not drafting him.  Tyler O'Neill can't stay healthy.  Giancarlo Stanton is .... well, at this point it's too easy to make fun of the guy so insert whatever witty insult you have for that guy here.  Kelenic still strikes out more than 30% of the time which is not sustainable at the MLB levl.  Even Schwarber gets his K% under 30% each year and he strikes out more than anyone in the league!

Okay, that's done.  Next will be pitcher tiers as we march toward the end of the way-too-early lists.