It's The Bigs Blog #19 - Way Too Early 2024 Starting Pitcher Tiers

 Let's waste no time here.  Starting pitcher is my favorite position to break down year over year and this year is no exception.   I'm not holding myself to a specific number of pitchers either overall or per tier so some are much larger than others.  Let's go.

Tier 1 - Bonafide Aces
Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, Luis Castillo, Zac Gallen, Framber Valdez

When constructing this top tier, I had to ask myself what criteria was the bar going to be set for each of these guys?  If I'm building my pitching rotation around this player, I need to guarantee myself 200 innings, 200 strikeouts and an ERA around or lower than 3.50.  Each of these guys have done this for multiple seasons except one.  Strider.  His arm is either going to fall completely off in a year or two or this guy could become the pitcher to own for years to come.  Last year in our 16 team league, the second round was rife with ace pitchers who gave off plenty of mixed results.  From Jacob deGrom to Sandy Alcantara to Strider and Cole themselves, picking an ace pitcher is an art.  These six guys feel like the cream of the crop in 2024.

Tier 2 - Aces with Questions
Justin Verlander, Kevin Gausman, Tyler Glasnow, Pablo Lopez, Zack Wheeler, Walker Buehler, Blake Snell, Logan Webb

Question with each:  Is Verlander still good at 42?  Are the Blue Jays going to improve the offense around Gausman?  Can Tyler Glasnow stay healthy?  Will Pablo Lopez continue this upward rise now in Minnesota?  Will Zack Wheeler repeat this ace-like season and vault himself into the upper echelon?  Can Walker Buehler return healthy and with his former form?  Can Blake Snell not walk the ballpark and somehow leave everyone stranded?  Will Logan Webb have a winning record in 2024?  If healthy, any of these guys can anchor a staff but the large question marks that exist with each guy could pose a problem if he's your #1 pitcher in 2024.

Tier 3 - Impressive 2's.
Aaron Nola, Chris Bassitt, Joe Musgrove, George Kirby, Shane Bieber, Zach Eflin, Max Fried, Nathan Eovaldi, Logan Gilbert

This is very obviously a step back from those above but could always turn in a performance better than someone in the tiers above as well.  My favorite among these is Bassitt who is nothing if not a workhorse professional fully capable of being the crutch your team needs to lean on during bad spurts from other pitchers.  The pair of Mariners, Kirby and Gilbert, could be a really nice duo to pair together having to face the A's and Angels often enough.  Bieber, Fried, and Musgrove had injury riddled seasons but were very good when healthy.  Odds are, they can put in a full season this year having battled the injury bug so much in 2023.  That leaves Eflin and Eovaldi.  Eflin was the surprise of the Rays in 2023 but there are no more secrets about this guy going into 2024 as the Rays first line of defense.  No McClanahan, Springs or Rasmussen, the weight is all on Eflin this season.  Finally Eovaldi showed what he really can do in the run to the World Series for the Texas Rangers.  A full season as the workhorse for the Rangers seems imminent.

Tier 4 - More 2's with Questions
Freddy Peralta, Sonny Gray, Cristian Javier, Charlie Morton, Merrill Kelly, Justin Steele, Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish, Max Scherzer, Mitch Keller

Oh the questions.  Let's begin.  Freddy Peralta had 200+ K's in 165.2IP.  Can he stay healthy again and climb quickly?  Sonny Gray has had a career filled with good seasons and bad seasons.  He's a free agent now so where he signs is VERY important to what he'll give you next season.  Cristian Javier had all the hype coming out of 2022 and put up a bit of a dud for the season.  Can he rebound?  Is Charlie Morton going to retire?  Is Merrill Kelly THIS good?  He's been serviceable as a 4 or 5 for times in the past but his 2023 really opened eyes with a 3.29 ERA and close to 200 K's.  Is Justin Steele for real with his 16 wins and a 3.06 ERA?  Will Clayton Kershaw ever throw more than 125 innings in a season again?  Which version of Yu Darvish are we going to see?  How many "restarts" will Max Scherzer require this season to throw 150 innings?  Finally, is Mitch Keller the next in the line of Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Joe Musgrove and others who have found a modicum of success in Pittsburgh only to be ASTRONOMICALLY better elsewhere?

Tier 5 - Upside 3's
Kodai Senga, Kyle Bradish, Jordan Montgomery, Jesus Luzardo, Marcus Stroman, Tanner Bibee, Jose Berrios, Aaron Civale, Eury Perez

This group is all over the place.  Senga was amazing in his first season with an ERA south of 3.  Does the ghost fork really fool guys that much or are we expecting a return to earth?  All those questions and more for Kyle Bradish whose ERA was 2.83 across 168 innings in 2023.  Only 58% of times was Bradish getting a first pitch strike so perhaps those numbers will begin to fade.  Jordan Montgomery is a free agent and could move based on landing spot.  Same is true of Marcus Stroman.  Luzardo and Perez will headline a Marlins staff this year that will be without Sandy Alcantara so pressure builds on them to have good seasons and push the Marlins back toward the playoffs.  Civale has all the makings of another great Tampa Bay pitcher but I'll need to see more than 120 innings to move anywhere up this ladder.  Bibee was amazing in Cleveland but that team appears to be taking steps back offensively... which is something considering how bad they were offensively in 2023.  Finally Jose Berrios.  Formerly a safe option to eat innings and give you good numbers.  In 2023, he was every bit as serviceable as he's been in years past.  So was 2022's atrocity the real season or was this past year more indicative of what he'll do in years to come?

Tier 6 - Worth a look for your 3 or 4 starter.
Joe Ryan, Dylan Cease, Grayson Rodriguez, Nick Pivetta, Michael Wacha, Chris Sale, Braxton Garrett, Kyle Gibson, Trevor Bauer, Lucas Giolito

Let's get the albatross and sore thumb out of the way first.  Trevor Bauer had a really good season in Japan in 2023 and has been reinstated by MLB.  His agents will now try to find him a landing spot for 2024 and if he does get a job, he is worth looking into.  Wacha, Gibson and Giolito are all free agents looking for their next job and though I don't see any of them moving up the ranks, a bad landing spot like Cincinnati or Colorado could see them tumble.  Dylan Cease was the apple of many drafters eye coming into 2023 and he took an enormous step back despite still putting up more than 200K.  His 4.02 BB/9 is hideous and will definitely stunt his progression in years to come.  Braxton Garrett's BB/9 was less than half that but his hard hit % was worst of everyone named so far in this write-up.  Joe Ryan and Grayson Rodriguez both have tremendous upside though had a bit of a rough time in 2023.  A full workload for Grayson appears in the cards for 24 and Ryan, having already thrown multiple full seasons, should be the odds on favorite to replace Sonny Gray as the Twins #2 behind Pablo.

Tier 7 - Getting a little shaky here....
Jon Gray, Nestor Cortes, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brayan Bello, Taijuan Walker, Edward Cabrera, Bailey Ober, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Wells, Alex Cobb

I'm not going to talk about each guy from here on out.  Walker had 15 wins and not much else to write home about.  See Eury Perez and Jesus Luzardo for talk on Edward Cabrera.  Cortes needs a bounce back.  The rest of these guys are probably just cannon fodder for the ends of rotations or perhaps guys on the waiver wire for spot starts.  Don't really have a favorite of this group either as I'm probably staying away from most of them on draft day.

Tier 8 - Draft at your own risk
Hunter Greene, Andrew Heaney, Miles Mikolas, Carlos Rodon, Alek Manoah, Luis Severino, Jack Flaherty, Lance Lynn, Carlos Carrasco... and a lot more.

These names highlight the guys I'm not touching until VERY late when my team is already assembled.  I'm not taking risks on guys like Rodon, Manoah, Severino or Flaherty for bounce backs even when the latter two are going to be on different teams than they were in 2023.  Rodon in Yankee Stadium might be the worst one, although trying to justify taking Hunter Greene these days also simply doesn't do it for me.  He is incapable of staying healthy and when he is, he plays his home games in a little league park that causes him to give up homers at a horrid rate.  Lynn, Mikolas, and Carrasco may be good for a crap team to eat innings but I'm not putting them on my fantasy team in 2024.  

Am I too harsh on the final tier?  Should someone bump up the list?  Let me know!